[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171712
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE W ATLC...

A GALE WARNING IS N OF 30N W OF 75W UNTIL 0000 UTC WED.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W UNTIL 1800 UTC
TODAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT 1200 UTC WED S OF 21N W OF
95W ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. THE GALE WILL DIMINISH BELOW
GALE AT 1800 UTC WED. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 7N11W TO 2N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 3S30W
TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 3S40W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 3W-10W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR 32N99W. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA AT 30N84W TO THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO AT 26N90W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 21N97W. RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT TO
INCLUDE MOST OF N FLORIDA. 15-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF
FRONT...WHILE 10-15 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE S OF FRONT. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...BROAD RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG
80W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS COVERS THE
GULF EXCEPT OVER THE SE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD
FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE NW CARIBBEAN
NEAR 20N87W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF
21N W OF 95W AT 1200 UTC WED FOR SIX HOURS. SEE ABOVE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE TAIL END OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS FROM 20N66W TO NE HISPANIOLA AT 19N70W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. A GALE WARNING IS ALONG
THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W
UNTIL 1800 UTC TODAY. 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS RIDGING WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 80W. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NW
CARIBBEAN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ALSO EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO DISSIPATE.

...HISPANIOLA...

BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER NE HISPANIOLA.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ISLAND...HINDERING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO APPROACH W HISPANIOLA DUE TO THE COLD
FRONT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT E OF A COLD FRONT OVER N
FLORIDA IS PRODUCING A GALE OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 30N W OF
75W UNTIL 0000 UTC WED. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OFF THE COAST
OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC FROM 30N47W TO 23N65. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
30N45W TO 22N60W TO NE HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
90 NM OF THE TROUGH. SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF
20N E OF 40W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 55W SUPPORTING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
FRONT. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 23N24W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO
EXTEND FROM 30N75W TO N THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH SHOWERS.
ALSO EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT TO
DISSIPATE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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