[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171052
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE 17 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-13N
BETWEEN 74W-76W AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC AND LOWER
PRESSURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THE WINDS WILL DROP BELOW GALE
FORCE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE W ATLC...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA N OF 30N W OF 77W AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS GALE WARNING WILL SLIDE E ACROSS THE W ATLC AS THE
FRONT MOVES E OVER THE W ATLC THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. PLEASE
SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO
FROM 19N-21N W OF 95W WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG FRONT AND SURFACE RIDGE
THAT WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 8N12W AND EXTENDS TO 1N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR TO 2S30W AND INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
39W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4S-8N BETWEEN
15W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE GULF AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES E ACROSS TEXAS. THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS LOW
PRESSURE OVER GEORGIA WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW FROM THE
LOW AND OVER THE GULF NEAR 30N86W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR
23N98W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 160 NM NW OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY SE AND WILL REACH CENTRAL FL
AND THE SW GULF THIS EVENING. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE FL STRAITS AND EXTEND TO THE YUCATAN WITH
SHOWERS ONGOING ALONG AND NW OF THE FRONT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GULF BEHIND THE FRONT. THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT PRODUCED BETWEEN THE HIGH AND DEPARTING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE SW GULF WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN WITH AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS
N ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA COVERING THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLC. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA IS
PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SW CARIBBEAN.
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 68W-81W. A COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITHIN 36 HOURS AND WILL EXTEND FROM
CENTRAL CUBA TO BELIZE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

...HISPANIOLA...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN TRADE WIND FLOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND. THIS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
ISLAND THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS TO THE ISLAND ON THURSDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OF 1023 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 30N66W. AN
UPPER TROUGH ALONG 51W SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS
THROUGH 32N45W TO 24N60W TO 23N65W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO 24N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 31N45W TO 24N54W TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N65W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM E OF THE TROUGH N
OF 25N. S OF 25N...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM SE OF THE
TROUGH...AND WITHIN 120 NM NW OF THE TROUGH. RIDGING DOMINATES
THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE W
ATLC AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE E OF THE FRONT. SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO

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