[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161759
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON FEB 16 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE W ATLC...

A GALE WARNING IS N OF 30N BETWEEN 47W AND 55W UNTIL 1800 UTC.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE W ATLC...

A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE W ATLC AT 1200 UTC
TUE N OF 30N W OF 74W ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO
MOVE INTO THE SW N ATLC. THIS GALE IS FORECAST THROUGH 1200 UTC
WED. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS FROM 10.5N TO 12N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W UNTIL
1800 UTC. A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO RESUME AT 0000 UTC TUE
AND END AT 1800 UTC TUE. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT 1200 UTC WED FROM 19N TO
21N W OF 95W ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 8N13W TO 1N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 1S30W
TO 3S42W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER E TEXAS NEAR 33N95W. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS WSW TO CENTRAL TEXAS. PRESENTLY 15-20 KT SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...BROAD RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W.
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS COVERS THE GULF
EXCEPT OVER THE SE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT
TO EXTEND FROM N FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH CONVECTION.
A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT 1200 UTC WED FROM 19N TO
21N W OF 95W. SEE ABOVE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE TAIL END OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS FROM 20N63W TO SE OF PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM N OF TROUGH. A GALE WARNING IS ALONG THE COAST OF N
COLOMBIA FROM 10.5N TO 12N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W UNTIL 1800 UTC.
THIS GALE IS FORECAST TO RESUME AT 0000 UTC TUE AND END AT 1800
UTC TUE. 10-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS BROAD RIDGING WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 75W. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO RETROGRADE BACK
TO THE MONA PASSAGE AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DUE TO THE SURFACE
TROUGH.

...HISPANIOLA...

BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE NORTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
MOSTLY UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ISLAND...HINDERING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO RETROGRADE BACK TO THE MONA PASSAGE AND
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DUE TO THE LEEWARD ISLAND SURFACE TROUGH.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N55W TO 24N70W
TO N OF CENTRAL CUBA AT 23N78W. A GALE WARNING IS  N OF 30N
BETWEEN 47W AND 55W UNTIL 1800 UTC. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 30N52W TO 20N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF
THE TROUGH N OF 26N. A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
34N29W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
W ATLANTIC N OF 25N BETWEEN 50W-70W SUPPORTING THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC FRONT. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 23N24W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE ATLANTIC COLD
FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 30N44W TO N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH
SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND GALE
TO ENTER THE W ATLANTIC. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net