[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161150
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON FEB 16 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE W ATLC...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA N OF 29N BETWEEN 59W
AND 66W ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE W ATLC SW
TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS OR FROM 31N58W TO 26N65W TO 24N80W. GALE
WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/
FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE W ATLC...

A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE
AREA N OF 30N W OF 77W. GALE WINDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE SW N ATLC AND ARE FORECAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN AT 1200
UTC TODAY FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE WEDNESDAY MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT WEDNESDAY MORNING WITHIN 60
NM OF COAST OF MEXICO FROM 19N TO 20N ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 28N82W TO 24N89W TO 18N96W. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 08N13W SW TO 01N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 01S33W TO 02S42W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS
ARE WITHIN 130 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
FROM 03S TO 01N WEST OF 26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH
BASE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED
WITH A 1009 MB LOW OVER NE TEXAS. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
LOW SW ALONG 31N94W 29N89W 30N86W TO 28N84W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOW
ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 29N E OF 93W. ALOFT...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE OVER THE GULF CONTINUES TO ADVECT
MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC WATERS TO THE BASIN. THIS UPPER MOISTURE
ALONG WITH INFLOW OF SHALLOW MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN ENHANCE
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 100 NM OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO. A
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...THE SW N ATLC
AND EXTENDS TO THE GULF OF MEXICO...THUS PROVIDING SE WINDS OF
10 TO 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT OVER THE NW BASIN. THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER WILL DRIFT E ACROSS THE S-SE CONUS ALONG WITH A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA SW TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE TUESDAY NIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONT ON THE SW GULF. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN....THUS SUPPRESSING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH TAIL EXTENDING TO PUERTO RICO
NE COASTAL WATERS SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE N-NE CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA
...THE MONA PASSAGE...PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
SIMILAR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE FOR THE CENTRAL BASIN N OF
14N BETWEEN 68W AND 81W. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SW N ATLC
PROVIDES NE WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT W OF 73W...INCREASING TO
GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THIS MORNING. SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. THE NEXT GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WED REACHING FROM EASTERN CUBA
TO BELIZE WED NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC WITH TAIL REACHING PUERTO RICO NE ADJACENT WATERS
SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ISLAND TODAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE
ISLAND FROM THE WEST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NW ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION FROM 30N57W SW TO 24N67W TO
SOUTH OF ANDROS ISLAND NEAR 23N78W. THERE IS NO CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS DEEP LAYER DRY AIR PREVAILS ACROSS
THE SW N ATLC. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT.
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE TROUGH ALOFT ALSO SUPPORTS A PRE-
FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH FROM 28N55W TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR
18N64W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM E OF ITS AXIS. A
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC N
OF 19N BEING ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 33N30W. W ATLC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE BASIN WITH GALE FORCE WINDS
BEHIND IT N OF 29N. THE FRONT WILL START TO WEAKEN OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
OVER THE SW N ATLC TUE NIGHT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS AHEAD OF IT.
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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