[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON FEB 16 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE W ATLC...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA N OF 29N BETWEEN 65W
AND 73W ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE W
ATLC...THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THEN INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. GALE WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE W ATLC...

A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE
AREA N OF 29N W OF 79W. GALE WINDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE SW N ATLC AND ARE FORECAST
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN AT 0600
UTC MONDAY FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE MONDAY NIGHT BUT WILL RESUME AGAIN
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT TUESDAY NIGHT WITHIN 60 NM OF
COAST OF MEXICO FROM 19N TO 20N ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT TO
EXTEND FROM 28N82W TO 24N89W TO 18N96W. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 10N14W SW TO 03N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 01S30W TO 02S42W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN
280 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NW ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT
THAT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND
THEN NW ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF FROM 25N81W TO 27N88W WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO SW LOUISIANA. THERE IS NO
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL DRY
AIR PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF.
ALOFT...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE OVER THE GULF
CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC WATERS TO THE WESTERN
BASIN. THIS UPPER MOISTURE ALONG WITH INFLOW OF SHALLOW MOISTURE
FROM THE CARIBBEAN ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 200 NM OFF
THE COAST OF MEXICO. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED NE
OF LAKE MICHIGAN EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS INTO PORTIONS OF
THE SW ATLC...FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...THUS PROVIDING
VARIABLE WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT E OF 90W AND SE WIND FLOW OF 15 KT
W OF 90W. WITH NO SUPPORT ALOFT OVER THE GULF...THE FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW
GULF EARLY MON NIGHT AND REACH FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE
SW GULF TUE AND SE OF THE GULF WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN....THUS SUPPRESING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH TAIL EXTENDING TO NE PUERTO
RICO SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...THE MONA PASSAGE...PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SW N ATLC PROVIDES NE WIND
FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT W OF 73W...WITH GALE FORCE WINDS DEVELOPING
THIS MORNING ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION. THE NEXT GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
NW CARIBBEAN WED REACHING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS WED AND WED NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC WITH TAIL REACHING PUERTO RICO SUPPORT CLOUDINESS
AND POSSIBLE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES N OF THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NW ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION FROM 30N59W SW TO 25N71W...
ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THEN NW ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THERE IS NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT AS DEEP LAYER DRY AIR PREVAILS ACROSS THE SW N
ATLC. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. TROUGHING ALOFT SUPPORTS A PRE-FRONTAL
SURFACE TROUGH FROM 32N53W TO NE PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N65W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM E OF ITS AXIS. A SURFACE
RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC N OF 15N
BEING ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH NEAR 32N27W. W ATLC COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE BASIN TONIGHT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS
BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND IT N OF 29N...WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC MON AND MON NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FAR W ATLC EARLY TUE NIGHT REACHING
FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO E CUBA BY WED NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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