[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152338
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
...GALE WARNING FOR THE W ATLC...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA N OF 29N BETWEEN 68W
AND 79W AND WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MON MORNING. THIS GALE WARNING
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE W ATLC
THAT EXTENDS ACROSS BERMUDA TO MELBOURNE FLORIDA. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/
FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-
12.5N BETWEEN 74W-77W EARLY MON. THE WINDS WILL BE BELOW GALE
FORCE BY MON AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 10N14W THEN ALONG 7N18W TO 2N22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 28W TO 41W THEN S OF THE
EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
W ATLC INTO THE GULF OVER FLORIDA BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND TAMPA
BAY CONTINUING ALONG 28N87W TO OVER LOUISIANA NEAR TERREBONNE
BAY. THIS FRONT IS WITHIN AN AREA OF DRY AIR AT THE LOWER
LEVELS...THUS NO SHOWERS ARE INDICATED. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE GULF BETWEEN THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL AND TEXAS GIVING THE GULF SW TO W FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS
ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE W GULF AND IS
GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS INLAND OVER TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF
TEXAS. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BRIDGING THE ABOVE FRONT WITH A 1024
MB HIGH NEAR 25N87W. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE GULF
TONIGHT. THE 1024 MB HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH MON NIGHT
WHILE DISSIPATING. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF
EARLY MON NIGHT AND REACH FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE SW
GULF TUE AND SE OF THE GULF WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER SOUTH AMERICA FROM COLOMBIA
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO GIVING THE CARIBBEAN SW TO W FLOW ALOFT. THE REMNANTS OF
A FRONT...NOW A SURFACE TROUGH...EXTENDS TO OVER PUERTO RICO
GIVING THE NE CARIBBEAN SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 17N BETWEEN 65W-
70W. LINGERING MOISTURE COUPLED WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM OF 15N BETWEEN 68W-
80W. THE SURFACE WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY W OF 76W WHICH IS
BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA S OF NICARAGUA AND W OF 80W.
THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH FAIR WEATHER
THIS EVENING. THE NEXT GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE NW CARIBBEAN WED REACHING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS WED AND WED NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING.
THIS MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST OF THE WEEK AND
COUPLED WITH THE NE TO E SURFACE FLOW COULD GENERATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS THROUGH WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLC N OF 30N SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS
BERMUDA ALONG 28N74W TO FLORIDA NEAR MELBOURNE THEN CONTINUING
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR WHICH IS LIMITING SHOWER
ACTIVITY. DENSE COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE FOLLOWING THE
FRONT E OF 80W AND THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. A SURFACE TROUGH...
PREVIOUSLY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM 30N56W TO 25N62W WITH
A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 23N64W TO OVER PUERTO
RICO. AN UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM NE VENEZUELA ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLC TO 30N40W IS CREATING AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
TO THE E OF THE SURFACE TROUGHS AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS N OF 25N BETWEEN 45W-56W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
E ATLC E OF THE ABOVE SURFACE TROUGHS AND ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB
HIGH NEAR 32N30W. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE
BASIN TONIGHT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND IT
N OF 29N...WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC MON AND
MON NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FAR W
ATLC EARLY TUE NIGHT REACHING FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO E CUBA BY WED
NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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