[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141059
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE W ATLC...
A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE AREA N OF 30N WEST OF
73W EARLY SUN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT N OF AREA. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE BY LATE SUN MORNING.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-
12N BETWEEN 74W-76W EARLY SUN. THE WINDS WILL BE BELOW GALE
FORCE BY LATE SUN MORNING. GALE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO RESUME
EARLY MON MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 07N12W THEN ALONG 04N13W TO 01N16W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR
01N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 35W TO 02N40W TO
01N45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01S TO 07N BETWEEN
20W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
BEING ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH SOUTH OF THE LOUISIANA COAST
NEAR 28N91W. THE RIDGE IS PROVIDING NORTHERLY-NORTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT TO THE BASIN...EXCEPT N OF 26N W OF THE HIGH
CENTER WHERE WINDS RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 KT AND TURN EAST-
SOUTHEAST. ALOFT...SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WIND FLOW PREVAILS
AND ADVECTS MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC WATERS ACROSS MEXICO AND THE
GULF. HOWEVER...DRY AIR DOMINATES AT MIDDLE TO LOWER
LEVELS...WHICH IS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER. SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE
THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY SATURDAY. A NEW COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY MORNING AND MOVE
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND THE  FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

REMNANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A FRONT ACROSS
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO SUPPORT CLOUDINESS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA...THE MONA
PASSAGE...PUERTO RICO...VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT W OF 74W ARE BANKING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AGAINST THE CENTRAL AMERICA COASTLINE...THUS ENHANCING
ISOLATED SHOWERS INLAND AND WITHIN 45 NM OF THE COAST.
SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE TRADES OF 15 TO 20 KT DOMINATING THE
REMAINDER BASIN E OF 74W. DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT SUPPORT
FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE ON THE CARIBBEAN. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN WILL
SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA SUN
MORNING. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES.

...HISPANIOLA...

LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
FRONT SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE ISLAND AND NORTHERN ADJACENT WATERS. GOES-13 IFR AND LIFR
PRODUCTS CONTINUE TO SHOW MEDIUM TO HIGH FOG PROBABILITIES ALONG
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THIS MOISTURE WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND COUPLED WITH THE NE SURFACE FLOW COULD
GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH MON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH W OF 60W ON THE W ATLC
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT N OF THE AREA THAT TRANSITIONS
TO A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 34N55W SW TO 30N60W TO 26N73W. NO
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT DUE TO MIDDLE TO LOW DRY AIR IN
THE SW N ATLC. A WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N45W
SW TO 19N55W. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM
EAST OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC N OF 16N BEING ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB
HIGH NEAR 31N26W. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SW N
ATLC ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A NEW COLD FRONT. SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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