[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE W ATLC...
A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE AREA N OF 30N BETWEEN
73W AND 79W EARLY SUN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT TO EXTEND
FROM 31N78W TO 30N81W. THIS GALE WARNING WILL SHIFT E AND BE NE
OF THE AREA EARLY MON. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-
12N BETWEEN 74W-76W EARLY SUN. THE WINDS WILL BE BELOW GALE
FORCE BY SUN NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 07N12W THEN ALONG 03N13W TO 01N16W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR
01N17W AND CONTINUES ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 34W TO 01N43W TO THE
NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 01S49W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 01S TO 04N BETWEEN 22W AND 38W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 21W-26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
BEING ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH SOUTH OF THE LOUISIANA COAST
NEAR 29N92W. THE RIDGE IS PROVIDING NORTHERLY-NORTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT TO THE BASIN...EXCEPT N OF 25N W OF THE HIGH
WHERE WINDS RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 KT AND TURN EAST-SOUTHEAST.
ALOFT...SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WIND FLOW PREVAILS AND ADVECTS
MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC WATERS ACROSS MEXICO AND THE WESTERN
GULF. HOWEVER...DRY AIR DOMINATES AT MIDDLE TO LOWER
LEVELS...WHICH IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE SATURDAY. A NEW COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY MORNING AND MOVE ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH TAIL EXTENDING
SW TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THIS FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
HISPANIOLA...THE MONA PASSAGE...PUERTO RICO...VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
LEEWARD ISLANDS. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE WEST
AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE BANKING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AGAINST THE
CENTRAL AMERICA COASTLINE...THUS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS
INLAND AND WITHIN 45 NM OF THE COAST. SCATTEROMETER DATA
INDICATE TRADES OF 10 TO 15 KT DOMINATING THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN BASIN. DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT SUPPORT FAIR
WEATHER ELSEWHERE ON THE CARIBBEAN. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN WILL SUPPORT
GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA SUN MORNING. SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES.

...HISPANIOLA...

LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
FRONT AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED FROM THE ATLC
WATERS SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE ISLAND. GOES-13 IFR AND LIFR SHOW MEDIUM TO HIGH FOG
PROBABILITIES ALONG THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THIS MOISTURE WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND COUPLED WITH THE NE SURFACE FLOW
COULD GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH MON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION FROM
30N60W SW TO 26N71W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT
TO ANDROS WESTERN COASTAL WATERS. NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH IT DUE TO MIDDLE TO LOW DRY AIR IN THE SW N ATLC. A WEAK
MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A
STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N44W SW TO THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 16N62W. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC N OF 15N BEING ANCHORED BY A
1033 MB HIGH NEAR 31N25W. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
N CENTRAL ATLC ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A NEW COLD FRONT.
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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