[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051739
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU FEB 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
...GALE WARNING IN CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 74W-76. THIS
GALE WARNING WILL BE DISCONTINUED THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE THE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING IN W ATLC...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT OVER THE NW ATLC N OF 27N WITHIN 120
NM E OF FRONT THAT WILL EXTENDS FROM 32N78W TO JUST N OF SAINT
AUGUSTINE FLORIDA. THIS GALE WARNING WILL SHIFT E AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 7N11W TO 1N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 19W-26W THEN ALONG 1N31W TO S OF THE
EQUATOR NEAR 39W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 5W-13W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE N GULF N OF 25N WITH NEAR ZONAL
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. THE UPPER
TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT CONSISTS OF A 1010 MB
LOW ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA JUST NW OF TAMPA BAY AND A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SW ALONG 25N88W TO 22N93W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS
FROM THE LOW ACROSS FLORIDA N OF TAMPA OVER GAINSVILLE TO JUST S
OF SAINT AUGUSTINE. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE SAME LOW ALONG 25N86W TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
MERIDA. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE IS
ESTABLISHED OVER THE W GULF AND ANCHORED BY A 1037 MB HIGH OVER
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BROKEN TO LOW CLOUDS COVER MOST
OF THE GULF W OF THE FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH EXCEPT N OF 28N FROM
THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA TO VERMILION BAY LOUISIANA WHERE
CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE E-NE ACROSS
FLORIDA TODAY. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP E-SE AND OUT
OF THE GULF TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE N GULF
SAT AND SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NEAR ZONAL NW FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON.
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS BRINGING AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF A LINE FROM W CUBA NEAR
PINOR DEL RIO ALONG 20N86W TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 15N87W.
THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND
AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA W OF 80W TO THE COSTA
RICA/NICARAGUA BORDER. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR
ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN LEAVING THE REMAINDER
OF THE BASIN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
THROUGH SUN. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN EARLY
TONIGHT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THEN STALL FROM E CUBA TO THE
GULF OF HONDURAS EARLY SAT MORNING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
THEN DRIFTING BACK NW SUN AFTERNOON.

...HISPANIOLA...
SKIES REMAIN CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ISLAND. ISOLATED
LOW LEVEL...TRADE WIND INDUCED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE
FRI WHEN AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A
FRONT THAT WILL STALL FROM E CUBA TO GULF OF HONDURAS SAT. THIS
WILL INCREASE SHOWERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 21N66W TO BEYOND BERMUDA. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS
AND N GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS A COLD FRONT INTO THE W ATLC NEAR
32N77W TO 30N80W WHERE A WARM FRONT CONTINUES ACROSS FLORIDA
JUST S OF SAINT AUGUSTINE TO THE 1010 MB SURFACE LOW OFF THE W
COAST OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM FLORIDA NEAR FORT
LAUDERDALE TO BEYOND 32N73W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS NW OF THE
ABOVE AREA TO INLAND OVER FLORIDA AND SE GEORGIA. A SURFACE
RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC N OF 24N BETWEEN 45W-
65W ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND
CANADA. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS A COLD
FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N40W ALONG 25N48W TO 23N60W
WHERE IT BECOMES A STATIONARY FRONT TO 24N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 26N. A REMNANT DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 32N29W EXTENDS
ALONG 24N36W TO 19N45W. THE LOW OFF THE W COAST OF FLORIDA WILL
MOVE ACROSS FLORIDA THEN NE ALONG THE FRONT TODAY AND EXITING N
OF THE AREA BY EARLY FRI. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
SE AND EXTEND FROM 32N71W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY LATER
TODAY THEN FROM 32N63W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY EARLY FRI THEN
STALLING FROM 32N55W TO E CUBA BY EARLY SAT AND BECOMING DIFFUSE
ON SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

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