[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 051201
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU FEB 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT CURRENTLY IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITH A
31N78.5W 29N81.5W COLD FRONT.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA GALE-FORCE WINDS...

GALE-FORCE NORTHEAST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 11 FEET
TO 13 FEET ARE BEING EXPERIENCED NOW FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W
AND 77W. GALE-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO STOP AFTER
THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WINDS FORECAST...

THE 6-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT FROM 31N78.5W TO
29N81.5W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET...TO THE NORTH OF 27N WITHIN 180 NM TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT. GALE-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS...IN RELATION TO THE
COLD FRONT AS THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECASTS...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC AND
MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHERN
SIERRA LEONE NEAR 5N8W 4N12W TO 2N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
2N17W...TO 1N20W...1N25W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 30W...TO
1S38W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 1N TO 5N BETWEEN 6W AND 11W.
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 5N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 19W AND 41W.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 24N16W TO 18N30W 11N40W 6N56W. HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...THROUGH THE AREA THAT IS
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE 24N16W-TO-6N56W LINE.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN HALF AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
TROUGH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES THAT COVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA
NEAR 28N81W...TO THE 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
29N85W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE 1011 MB LOW CENTER TO
26N90W 24N93W...AND TO THE NORTHERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS
DISPLAYED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT
RUNS FROM FLORIDA NEAR 31N83W TO 25N86W AND TO 21N90W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 1011 MB LOW CENTER TO 26N86W...TO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO NORTHWESTERN
GUATEMALA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N78W 28N81W 23N84W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS FROM
BEAUMONT TO THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST
NEAR 20N97W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE AREA OF THE PLATFORM SITES.
THE ONLY SITES THAT ARE NOT REPORTING LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS
ARE...KHHV...KEHC...KVKY...AND KMIS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE COASTAL PLAINS FROM TEXAS TO
SARASOTA FLORIDA. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO ALABAMA. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM
DESTIN WESTWARD. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAIN COVER FLORIDA
FROM DESTIN EASTWARD TO NAPLES. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN COVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN ONE-
THIRD OF THE AREA...AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...FINALLY
CURVING THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE AREA OF 20N80W TO JAMAICA...RUNNING UP
AGAINST THE MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES CUBA...AND IT MOVES
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND BEYOND...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

600 MB TO 800 MB LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING THROUGH
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM 14N NORTHWARD FROM
73W EASTWARD...AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...FROM 15N NORTHWARD FROM 80W WESTWARD.

UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
NEAR 7N87W...ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTH AMERICA FROM
COLOMBIA TO NICARAGUA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...THAT IS APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SURFACE-TO-LOW
LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR
THE PERIOD ENDING AT 05/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...IS 0.21 IN GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL COSTA RICA BEYOND 7N90W
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS PRESENT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

...HISPANIOLA...

600 MB TO 800 MB LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...THAT IS
APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS HISPANIOLA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO.
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. FEW TO SCATTERED
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING
IS IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA. A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN JUST TO THE WEST OF COLOMBIA...THROUGH
CENTRAL AMERICA...TO GUATEMALA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500
MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA.
AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START JUST TO THE
NORTHEAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST CYCLE. THAT
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER EVENTUALLY WILL MOVE TO 17N59W
IN THE ATLANTIC AT THE END OF THE 48 TIME PERIOD. A TROUGH WILL
MOVE TO A POSITION THAT IS JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
HISPANIOLA...SENDING SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS
HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD TIME. THE
GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE FROM A POSITION THAT IS TO THE
NORTH OF HISPANIOLA TO A POSITION THAT ENDS UP BEING WAY TO THE
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE
48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DURING THE
FIRST 24 HOUR TIME PERIOD. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL
COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N43W TO
27N44W. THIS TROUGH IS MERGING WITH THE 32N28W-TO-6N57W TROUGH
THAT IS TO THE EAST OF IT. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N44W TO 27N50W 23N60W AND 23N68W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 26N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 37W AND
44W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 180 NM TO THE NORTH OF
26N45W 23N55W 24N66W 24N73W. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING
EASTWARD FROM FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT CURRENTLY IS MOVING THROUGH THE
GULF OF MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 24N
NORTHWARD FROM 63W WESTWARD.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N28W TO
22N30W TO 14N38W TO 10N47W...TO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
GUYANA NEAR 6N57W. THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT
THAT IS ALONG 32N30W TO 24N35W AND TO 19N42W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 25N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 20W AND 31W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N24W TO 24N27W TO 15N31W.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
15N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 32N30W-TO-19N42W FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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