[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021800
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON FEB 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1815 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FOR
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING...

THE 6-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS APPROACHING
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. EXPECT GALE-FORCE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 FEET TO 11 FEET TO THE
NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF 78W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

THE 24-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF GALE-FORCE NORTHEAST-TO-EAST
WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 10 FEET TO 15 FEET FROM 11N
TO 14N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W.

...THE GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

THE 6-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT FROM 28N82W TO
24N90W TO 22N96W TO 19N96W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH
WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 FEET TO 11 FEET FROM 21N TO
23N TO THE WEST OF 97W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECASTS...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC AND
MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF LIBERIA
NEAR 6N11W TO 4N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N16W TO 1N27W...
CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 29W...TO 1S39W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 7N12W 4N26W 4N37W 3N45W
SOUTHWARD. NUMEROUS STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 49W
AND 52W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 2N TO 4N
BETWEEN 47W AND 51W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS
APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM 26N80W 25N90W 22N98W
SOUTHWARD.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE U.S.A. THE TROUGH REACHES SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
WITHOUT REACHING THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 24N98W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N AND CUBA NORTHWARD FROM 65W WESTWARD...
AND IN MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO IN AREAS OF MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD
ENDING AT 02/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...IS 0.01 IN FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS.

THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM TEXAS...TO THE MEXICO COASTAL
PLAINS...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF MEXICO. PLEASE
READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/
FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
ICAO PLATFORM SITES...ONLY AT KVOA.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER TEXAS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH TO
THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND
RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...COVERS FLORIDA FROM BROOKSVILLE TO THE
TAMPA-SAINT PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN AREA...TO SARASOTA AND PUNTA
GORDA. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER FORT MYERS AND NAPLES.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. 600 MB-TO-800 MB SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ALSO IS MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...THAT IS
APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA.

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 20N52W TO
19N60W...ALONG THE NORTHERN COASTS/IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...THROUGH NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...INTO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA NEAR
21N76W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS WITHIN 120 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE
COLD FRONT BETWEEN 56W AND 72W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 22N50W 20N57W 17N62W 16N69W
17N74W. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N52W 18N56W 16N58W
14N59W 11N59W.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SURFACE-TO-LOW
LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR
THE PERIOD ENDING AT 02/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...IS 0.13 IN GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 6N75W IN COLOMBIA...TO 5N79W...
BEYOND 5N84W...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS PRESENT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA. 600
MB TO 800 MB SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ALSO IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA.

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 20N52W TO
19N60W...ALONG THE NORTHERN COASTS/IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...THROUGH NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...INTO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA NEAR
21N76W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS WITHIN 120 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE
COLD FRONT BETWEEN 56W AND 72W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 22N50W 20N57W 17N62W 16N69W
17N74W. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N52W 18N56W 16N58W
14N59W 11N59W.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN
HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA AND PUNTA
CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA. A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM
NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA BEYOND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. EITHER A RIDGE WILL CROSS
HISPANIOLA...OR AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE ON
TOP OF THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 24
HOURS OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE ISLAND.
THE WIND FLOW WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED
RIDGE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N37W TO
26N41W TO 18N42W AND 12N44W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N38W TO 25N45W TO 21N47W...TO 20N52W TO
19N60W...ALONG THE NORTHERN COASTS/IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...THROUGH NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...INTO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA NEAR
21N76W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS WITHIN 120 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE
COLD FRONT BETWEEN 56W AND 72W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...SCATTERED TO BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 22N50W
20N57W 17N62W 16N69W 17N74W. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
20N52W 18N56W 16N58W 14N59W 11N59W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 36W AND 41W.

A 1020 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 26N34W...WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 22N40W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N24W TO 26N26W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net