[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021143
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON FEB 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
...GALE WARNING IN CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 10.5N-13N BETWEEN 74W-78W THIS MORNING
THEN WILL PULSE AGAIN TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING AND TUE NIGHT
INTO WED MONRING. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING IN W ATLC...
A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT LATER THIS MORNING OFF THE
GEORGIA COAST N OF 29N W OF 78W. THIS AREA WILL SHIFT E AS THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE W ATLC THROUGH TUE
MORNING WHERE THE GALE WILL BE N OF 28.5N E OF FRONT TO 65W.
PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING IN GULF OF MEXICO...
A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE SW GULF OF MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON FROM 21N-23.5N W OF 97W THROUGH LATE TONIGHT/
EARLY TUE MORNING. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE W GULF
MON IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF AND WILL
TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO GENERATE THE GALE FORCE WINDS.
PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 9N13W ALONG 6N15W TO 3N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 1N24W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 28W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-7N
BETWEEN 9W-13W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF
LINE FROM 4N47W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3N51W. A
NARROW BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1N BETWEEN
18W-23W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUES TO ADVECT UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE N GULF. AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT
02/0900 UTC EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OVER PENSACOLA FLORIDA ALONG
27N91W TO INLAND OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 25N97W. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM SE OF
THE FRONT. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS DOT THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA WITHIN 240 NM SE OF THE FRONT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS W
OF THE FRONT TO OVER THE S TEXAS AND SE LOUISIANA. THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL
REACH FROM EXTREME SW FLORIDA TO SW MEXICO JUST S OF TUXPAN THIS
EVENING CONTINUING S-SE THROUGH TUE AND BECOMING E TO W ALIGNED
ALONG 22N. A NW/SE ORIENTED REMNANT TROUGH OVER THE SW GULF TUE
WILL LIFT NE ON TUE NIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NEAR
27N90W BY WED EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH
AMERICA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS NW ACROSS COLOMBIA TO THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC JUST
N OF PUERTO RICO TO OVER HISPANIOLA ALONG 19N70W TO OVER E CUBA
NEAR 21N76W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 16N62W TO 16N69W
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60/75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH
AXIS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATE THE
CARIBBEAN LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OFF
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH THU NIGHT INCREASING TO MINIMAL
GALE FORCE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH
THU MORNING. THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NE
CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE THROUGH TODAY. THE
GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN
TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY STALL E TO W THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TUE.

...HISPANIOLA...
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING ACROSS THE ISLAND. A COLD
FRONT IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM JUST N OF PUERTO RICO
ACROSS HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W TO OVER E CUBA NEAR 21N76W. THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT
AND COULD GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS. LATE TUE WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF POSSIBLE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF OF
MEXICO FRONT THAT WILL BE N OF THE ISLAND THROUGH WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE FAR W
ATLC W OF 65W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 50W
ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 29N67W. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH IN
THE CENTRAL ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO
THE AREA NEAR 32N41W ALONG 25N47W 20N57W JUST N OF PUERTO RICO
TO OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W TO OVER E CUBA NEAR 21N76W. A PRE-
FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 19N56W ACROSS THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 16N62W INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A NARROW UPPER
RIDGE TO THE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 22N44W TO 28N39W. A
REMNANT 1018 MB SURFACE LOW REMAINS NEAR 26N34W. THE CENTRAL
ATLC FRONT OVER HISPANIOLA AND E CUBA WILL MOVE INTO THE NE
CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE THROUGH TODAY. GULF
OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GALE CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY TUE. THE FRONT WILL
REACH FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS EARLY TUE AND CONTINUE E
THROUGH WED AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY E TO W ALONG 24N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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