[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240548
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE
ATLC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE
WINDS ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 73W-
77W. SEAS OF 8 TO 14 FT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS
AM...INCREASING TO 14 TO 18 FT DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE GALE
FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THIS AREA THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OFF THE W AFRICA COAST NEAR 06N10W TO
04N13W...THERE THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 03N20W TO
03N30W TO 04N40W TO THE COAST OF S AMERICA NEAR 01N50W. SHOWERS
EXTEND N OF THE ITCZ AXIS TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 45W. NO DEEP
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US SUPPORTS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND STREAMING N WITHIN 100 NM
OF THE COASTS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND THE FL
PANHANDLE. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLC TO CENTRAL FL TO THE W GULF NEAR 26N95W SUPPORTING
MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SE WINDS E OF 93W...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
S TO SE WINDS W OF 93W. A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS WITHIN 100 NM INLAND
OVER TX. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE EXTREME NW GULF
FROM NEAR 26N97W TO 28N96W. NO CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS
TROUGH. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
ROUND THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US WHICH WILL TRIGGER
PERIODS OF CONVECTION OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF. OTHERWISE LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE BASIN IS CURRENTLY FREE FROM DEEP CONVECTION. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NW
COLOMBIA SUPPORTS GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS COVER THE MAJORITY OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW SUPPORTS ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND AND
OFFSHORE WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N56W
DOMINATES THE SW N ATLC WITH FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATE TO FRESH
SE TRADE WINDS. THE ONLY NOTABLE WEATHER OCCURRING OVER THE
SUBTROPICAL N ATLC IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTING
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 38W AND
48W. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS E ACROSS THE ENTIRE
SUBTROPICAL ATLC WITH ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH OF 1029 MB CENTERED
NEAR 33N16W. LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

LATTO
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net