[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 232334
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA IS SUPPORTING
GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-14N
BETWEEN 73W-77W. SEAS OF 11 TO 16 FT ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING...INCREASING TO 14 TO 18 FT BY THURSDAY. THE GALE FORCE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THIS AREA THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. FOR
MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N10W TO 01N20W TO 05N40W TO THE
COAST OF S AMERICA NEAR 01N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 01N-
08N BETWEEN 20W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
HOUSTON TO S OF CORPUS CHRISTI. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS TO NE MEXICO NEAR 24N98W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO HAS 10-25 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS IN HIGH PRESSURE
RETURN FLOW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
OVER TEXAS AND N MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 100W. A SUBTROPICAL JET
STREAM EXTENDS FROM VERACRUZ MEXICO TO JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NE GULF AND N FLORIDA
N OF 27N AND E OF 87W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
COLD FRONT TO DRIFT E AND EXTEND FROM SW LOUISIANA TO CORPUS
CHRISTI TEXAS WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT PREFRONTAL CONVECTION
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SEE ABOVE. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS. THE SEA
IS MOSTLY VOID OF THUNDERSTORMS HOWEVER BANDS OF SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...PANAMA
...AND COSTA RICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL RIDGE IS OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER E
HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N69W. THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN HAS VERY STRONG
SUBSIDENCE SUPPRESSING THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR AN INCREASE IS SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.

...HISPANIOLA...

TRADEWIND SHOWERS ARE PRESENTLY ADVECTING OVER HISPANIOLA...
WHILE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS SUPPRESSING THUNDERSTORM
FORMATION. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NE COAST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1033 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N50W.
VERY BROAD SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W
OF 20W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF
25N W OF 75W TO INCLUDE THE N BAHAMAS. THIS CONVECTION IS MOSTLY
DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. EXPECT
CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE W ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

FORMOSA
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net