[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211130
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON DEC 21 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE
ATLC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE
WINDS ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 73W-
78W. SEAS OF 10 TO 14 FT ARE EXPECTED. THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THIS AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...AND ARE FORECAST TO
EXPAND IN COVERAGE THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE
REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N17W TO 04N30W TO 04N40W TO THE
COAST OF S AMERICA NEAR 01N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 100 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE SW TO NE GULF WITH SW
UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS STREAMING
MOISTURE ACROSS THE NW GULF WITH PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN. A BROAD
1035 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 36N66W SUPPORTS MODERATE TO FRESH E
TO SE WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS A
MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING SW TO NE OVER THE NW GULF
WILL BRING INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT
MAINLY N OF 26N. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD E TO INCLUDE THE
NE GULF TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CUBA TO
HONDURAS...SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 73W AND 80W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NW
COLOMBIA SUPPORTS GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS DOMINATE THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE N CARIBBEAN AND GREATER ANTILLES. GALE FORCE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

THE UPPER TROUGH FROM THE BAHAMAS TO CUBA SUPPORTS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
HISPANIOLA THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH WILL DRIFT E WITH CONVECTION
LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACROSS HISPANIOLA THROUGH TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N49W TO 28N59W...WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO 26N70W TO 26N80W. THE
STATIONARY FRONT IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER TROUGH TO SUPPORT
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N TO 26N BETWEEN 68W
AND 77W...INCLUDING THE SE BAHAMAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A 1030 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 32N32W DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
SUBTROPICAL ATLC WITH GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS THE REMAINDER OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY
WHILE THE CURRENT STATIONARY FRONT DISSIPATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

LATTO
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