[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210538
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON DEC 21 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE
ATLC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE
WINDS ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 10.5N-13N BETWEEN 73W-
78W. SEAS OF 10 TO 14 FT ARE EXPECTED. THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THIS AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND ARE FORECAST
TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR MORE INFORMATION
PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADER MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N15W TO 05N30W TO 04N40W TO THE
COAST OF S AMERICA NEAR 01N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 100 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS E OF 38W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS W OF 38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE SW TO NE GULF WITH SW
UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS STREAMING
MOISTURE ACROSS THE NW GULF WITH PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN. AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTS A WEAKENING STATIONARY
FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC TO N CUBA NEAR 23N81W TO 22N89W. A 1035
MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N73W SUPPORTS MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE
WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE
STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING SW TO NE OVER THE NW GULF WILL BRING
INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT MAINLY N OF
26N. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD E TO INCLUDE THE NE GULF
TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CUBA TO
HONDURAS...SUPPORTING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 17N TO
22N BETWEEN 70W AND 83W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLC HIGH
PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA SUPPORTS GALE FORCE
WINDS OVER THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE BASIN.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE N
CARIBBEAN AND GREATER ANTILLES. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

THE UPPER TROUGH FROM THE BAHAMAS TO CUBA SUPPORTS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA TONIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL
DRIFT E WITH CONVECTION LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N52W TO 27N62W...WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO 25N70W TO 23N80W. THE
STATIONARY FRONT IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER TROUGH TO SUPPORT
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 19N TO 26N BETWEEN
68W AND 78W...INCLUDING THE SE BAHAMAS. A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 32N33W DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLC
WITH GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE
REMAINDER OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY WHILE THE
CURRENT STATIONARY FRONT DISSIPATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

LATTO
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