[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061150
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN DEC 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A STRENGTHENED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA BASIN
IS CREATING NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE NE TO E WINDS WITHIN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA
INDICATES THIS WIND FIELD IS LOCATED S OF 13N BETWEEN 73W-76W
AND IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO A RANGE OF 20 TO 30 KT BY 06/1800
UTC. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N AND THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO
04N02W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
04N02W TO 03N08W TO 05N14W INTO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 06N25W TO THE
EQUATOR NEAR 47W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED NORTH OF THE AXIS
FROM 03N42W TO 08N43W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 03N BETWEEN 09W-24W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 05N-08N BETWEEN 17W-26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA COAST PROVIDING FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING S OF 25N BETWEEN 79W-89W. OTHERWISE...
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1037 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-ATLC
STATES EXTENDING AN AXIS SW TO EASTERN TEXAS THEN SOUTHWARD TO A
1030 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS
ALOFT...HOWEVER LOW-TOPPED ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE AS
FRESH TO STRONG E-NE WINDS PREVAIL E OF 90W AND MODERATE TO
FRESH E-NE WINDS CONTINUE W OF 90W THIS MORNING. THIS OVERALL
WIND REGIME IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. NE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ANCHORED NEAR 11N82W
EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO BEYOND EASTERN CUBA NEAR 24N75W. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGING ALOFT IN TANDEM
WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR
22N86W SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 17N87W IS
PROVIDING FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N BETWEEN 84W-88W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUE TO THE S-SE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
NICARAGUA TO PANAMA COAST FROM 09N-11N BETWEEN 81W-85W.
ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 16N66W WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NE
CARIBBEAN. OTHERWISE...FRESH TO STRONG TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS
MOST OF THE BASIN EXCEPT ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE STRONGEST
TRADES...TO GALE FORCE...ARE NOTED WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA THIS MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 16N66W THAT CONTINUES TO
PROVIDE OVERALL MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED WESTWARD MOVING SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS THE ISLAND AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL WEAKEN
SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SETTLES IN AND AN OVERALL DRYING
TREND CONTINUES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OFF THE MID-ATLC AND CAROLINA COAST IN THE
VICINITY OF 34N73W THAT SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING
FROM 30N65W TO THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS
NEAR 24N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. STRONG TO NEAR GALE NE
WINDS PERSIST AS A STRONG RIDGE ANCHORS ITSELF ACROSS THE MID-
ATLC AND SE CONUS. FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...A
CENTRAL NORTH ATLC TROUGH AXIS ALONG 34W SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
ANALYZED FROM 32N38W W-SW TO 28N50W TO 28N55W THEN W-NW AS
STATIONARY TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT NEAR
30N65W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING GENERALLY WITHIN 120 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N39W. FINALLY...ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC...A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 21N28W. EXTENSIVE
CLOUDINESS COVERS THE EASTERN ATLC FROM 15N-32N E OF 25W DUE TO
DIFFLUENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net