[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060557
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN DEC 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC
FROM 30N65W SW TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N80W. NORTH OF THE
FRONT...A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS BETWEEN LOWER
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES AND BAHAMAS...AND A
RELATIVELY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AT 1039 MB CENTERED
ACROSS THE MID-ATLC STATES. NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE NE TO E
WINDS ARE OCCURRING N OF 30N BETWEEN 65W-72W. THESE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 06/0600 UTC. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

A STRENGTHENED PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE
ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA BY 06/0600 UTC. THESE NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR 6 HOURS AND THEN DECREASE TO A RANGE
OF 20 TO 30 KT. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/
WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 02N AND THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO
02N01W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
02N01W TO 02N09W INTO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 05N25W TO 02N45W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED NORTH OF THE AXIS FROM 05N40W TO
10N42W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 08N
BETWEEN 16W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA PROVIDING FOCUS
FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING WITHIN
75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT E OF 84W...AND S OF 24N BETWEEN
84W-88W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1039 MB HIGH CENTERED
ACROSS THE MID-ATLC STATES EXTENDING AN AXIS SW TO EASTERN TEXAS
THEN SOUTHWARD TO A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND OVERALL
STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT...HOWEVER LOW-TOPPED ISOLATED SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE AS FRESH TO STRONG E-NE WINDS PREVAIL E OF 90W
AND MODERATE TO FRESH E-NE WINDS CONTINUE W OF 90W THIS EVENING.
THIS OVERALL WIND REGIME IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ANCHORED NEAR 13N83W
EXTENDING N-NE TO BEYOND EASTERN CUBA NEAR 24N76W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGING ALOFT IN TANDEM WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N85W
SOUTHWARD TO THE HONDURAS COAST NEAR 16N86W IS PROVIDING FOCUS
FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN N OF 15N BETWEEN 83W-88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
CONTINUE TO THE S-SE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NICARAGUA TO PANAMA
COAST FROM 09N-12N BETWEEN 80W-84W. ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 15N68W WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
OCCURRING N OF 15N BETWEEN 63W-72W. OTHERWISE...FRESH TO STRONG
TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN EXCEPT W OF 82W. THE
STRONGEST TRADES...TO NEAR GALE FORCE...ARE NOTED WITHIN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THIS EVENING.

...HISPANIOLA...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 15N68W THAT CONTINUES TO
PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
WESTWARD MOVING SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS. THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SETTLES IN AND AN OVERALL DRYING TREND
CONTINUES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLC AND CAROLINA COAST IN THE
VICINITY OF 26N76W THAT SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING
FROM 30N65W TO 29N73W TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N80W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. STRONG TO NEAR GALE NE WINDS PERSIST
AS A STRONG RIDGE ANCHORS ITSELF ACROSS THE MID-ATLC AND SE
CONUS. FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...A CENTRAL NORTH
ATLC TROUGH AXIS ALONG 39W SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM
32N45W SW TO 29N52W THEN WESTWARD TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 29N65W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE FRONT NEAR 30N49W TO 27N59W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
GENERALLY WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...
SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL
ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N48W. FINALLY...
ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 23N30W. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS COVERS THE EASTERN
ATLC FROM 16N-31N E OF 27W DUE TO DIFFLUENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN
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