[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040558
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI DEC 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA SW
TO 20N92W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 19N92W. A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT DUE TO SURFACE RIDGING WEST OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN GULF IS GENERATING NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE NORTHERLY
WINDS S OF 21N W OF 94W. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE BELOW
GALE FORCE BY 04/0600 UTC. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N12W TO
05N31W TO 01N45W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
01N-05N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 11W...AND FROM 04N-07N
BETWEEN 26W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH MID-LEVEL
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING OVER
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SW TO OVER EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO AS OF
04/0300 UTC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT MEANDERING FROM ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO A 1016 MB LOW ALONG THE
FRONT NEAR 25N83W TO 22N90W TO THE SOUTHERN MEXICO COAST NEAR
18N92W. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE GULF BETWEEN THE MID-
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SE. THE ONLY
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CLEARING IS NOTICED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
ACROSS THE NW GULF THIS EVENING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...NEAR GALE
TO GALE FORCE CONDITIONS CONTINUE UNTIL 04/0600 UTC ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SW GULF...WITH PRIMARILY FRESH TO STRONG N-NE
WINDS PREVAILING ELSEWHERE. WINDS DECREASE TO MODERATE BREEZE
LEVELS ACROSS THE NW GULF ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. THE FRONT WILL
BE SLOW TO SLIDE GRADUALLY EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY EXTENDING
FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE WITH AXIS ALONG THE TEXAS AND
EASTERN MEXICO COAST THROUGH MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ANCHORED NEAR 13N82W EXTENDING N-NE
TO BEYOND CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 24N78W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE RIDGING ALOFT IN TANDEM WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH ANALYZED AT 04/0300 UTC FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR
23N85W SOUTHWARD INTO A 1013 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 17N87W IS
PROVIDING FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN N OF 15N BETWEEN 79W-87W. THIS AREA HAS HAD PERSISTENT
SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES MOVING ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
21N70W WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ON
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS ALONG 73W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 65W-73W. OTHERWISE...
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN EXCEPT W
OF 82W WHERE THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IS GENERATING BROAD GENTLE
CYCLONIC FLOW.

...HISPANIOLA...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NORTH OF THE ISLAND NEAR 21N70W
THAT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS EVENING WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION. THE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD BY LATE SUNDAY AND
WEAKEN E OF 68W AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SETTLES IN AND A DRYING
TREND BEGINS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
SW TO OVER THE MID-ATLC REGION WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHING
PREVAILING OVER THE CAROLINAS SW TO OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. AS
OF 04/0300 UTC THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM
32N68W SW TO 28N74W THAT BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE FAR SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING GENERALLY N
OF 24N W OF 75W...AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT E OF
75W. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH
CENTERED ACROSS THE AZORES NEAR 39N29W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN
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