[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040001
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU DEC 3 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
AND CONTINUES INLAND ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE IN
NE MEXICO IS GENERATING GALE FORCE N-NW WINDS S OF 21N W OF 94W.
20-30 KT NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE W OF THE FRONT S OF
26N. THE AREA OF GALES IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THE
REST OF TONIGHT. SEE THE LATEST FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THERE IS NO MONSOON TROUGH PRESENT ACROSS THE W AFRICAN REGION.
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 08N13W TO 05N37W TO 07N48W TO THE COAST OF SURINAME
NEAR 06N57W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120
NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 32W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TO NORTHERN MEXICO THEN S OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS BLANKET A LARGE PORTION OF THE GULF NW OF
THE FRONT...WHERE LIGHT TO MODERATE STRATOFORM PRECIP CONTINUES
TO MOVE NE ACROSS THE BASIN. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION OCCURRING ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SW SECTIONS. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE ALONG
AND E OF THE TROUGH FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS S-SW ACROSS W CUBA AND
INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. N TO N-NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT GENERALLY
PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 26N. SEAS ARE BUILDING QUICKLY
BEHIND THE FRONT. MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS PRECEDE THE
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT THEN
STALL FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...WHERE IT
WILL LIKELY MEANDER THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE CONSIDERABLY ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE GULF TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE NE WINDS 20-25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
200-250 NM N OF THE STALLED FRONT THROUGH SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TUTT LOW LINGERS OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND HAITI NEAR
19N73W...AND IS BEGINNING TO DRIFT EASTWARD AS THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. SHIFTS E. THE LOW IS ENHANCING
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR HISPANIOLA. SHARP UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING TO THE WEST IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO ENHANCE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG AND WITHIN 180 NM
E OF A LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE
GULF OF HONDURAS. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS FRESH TO STRONG E
TRADES IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BASIN. A STRONG ATLANTIC
RIDGE PROMOTING THESE TRADES WILL SHIFT E-NE DURING THE NEXT 36-
48 HOURS WITH THE WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTING A
MODEST DECREASE IN THE TRADES FRI THROUGH SAT.

...HISPANIOLA...

THE TUTT LOW OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND WESTERN HISPANIOLA
HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY...BUT STILL SUPPORTS WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA. THE TUTT LOW WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E TODAY
TO MAINTAIN UNSTABLE BUT IMPROVING CONDITIONS TONIGHT. AMPLE
MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE E-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL FOCUS DIURNAL
CONVECTION ACROSS PREFERRED REGIONS OF INTERIOR AND N CENTRAL
HISPANIOLA DURING THE DAY...WITH NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTORMS TONIGHT ALONG EASTERN COASTAL PORTIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N75W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. CONVERGENT
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SE OF THE FRONT PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION UP TO 150 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT E-SE THROUGH FRI...REACHING FROM NEAR
BERMUDA TO PALM BEACH FLORIDA LATER TONIGHT...THEN STALL FROM
31N65W TO THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH SAT. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WILL SHIFT E-NE AND WEAKEN THROUGH SAT AS THE FRONT CONTINUES
MOVING EWD AT MID LATITUDES. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
SW NORTH ATLC WATERS NEAR THE FRONT WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE UNTIL
FRONTAL PASSAGE FRI MORNING. THEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE FRONT
WILL BECOME MORE EAST-WEST ORIENTED AND BECOME QUASISTATIONARY
FROM ALONG 29N/30N TO THE NW BAHAMAS AND EXTREME S FLORIDA...
WITH STRONG TO NEAR GALE NE WINDS EXPECTED AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS N OF 27N W OF 67W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MUNDELL
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