[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261018
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS CENTERED NEAR 16.1N 56.0W AT 26/0900 UTC
OR ABOUT 340 NM E OF ANTIGUA MOVING W 16 KT. ESTIMATED CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 45 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 51W-61W. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 24N33W TO 1008 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR
15N34W. THE WAVE IS MOVING W AT 10-15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
SSMI TPW INDICATES THAT THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF
DEEP MOISTURE. MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS A 700 MB INVERTED TROUGH
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF CLOUDINESS
SURROUNDING THIS WAVE BETWEEN 28W-41W. ISOLATED LIGHT TO
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 33W-38W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 12N16W INTO A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 14N34W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS FROM 04N-16N BETWEEN 22W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
THE E CONUS TO OVER THE N GULF SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT
THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1011 MB LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA
INTO THE GULF FROM 30N84W TO 26N89W TO 29N96W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AFFECTING THE GULF
WATERS N OF 25N. AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE PREVAILS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GULF SUPPORTING ISOLATED
CONVECTION MAINLY S OF 23N. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED ACROSS
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 21N92W TO 19N94W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE
CONVECTION PREVAIL S OF 20N BETWEEN 93W-96W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AFFECTING THE GULF WATERS S OF 27N AND E OF
83WW. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A LIGHT TO GENTLE NORTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE N GULF ENHANCING CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 16N78W AND EXTENDING
ACROSS THE W AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. TO THE E...A
SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF DANNY...EXTENDS ACROSS DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC FROM 20N69W TO 17N70W. ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AFFECTING MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTION OF
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS S
OF 10N IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AFFECTING THE
SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS S OF 12N AND PORTION S OF PANAMA AND
NORTHERN COLOMBIA. LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS THE
BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR TROPICAL STORM ERIKA
TO APPROACH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THIS SYSTEM.
THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER E HISPANIOLA WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS
THE ISLAND WITH CONVECTION.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER E DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AS A
RESULT OF A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THAT PORTION OF
THE ISLAND. EXPECT FOR THIS TROUGH TO CONTINUE MOVING W WITH
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC APPROACHING THE E CARIBBEAN. PLEASE REFER TO THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS
MOVING ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC...REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR
DETAILS. ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
27N77W TO 30N73W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AFFECTING
THE W ATLANTIC WATERS MAINLY N OF 25N AND W OF 77W. A SURFACE
RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N55W AND A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 30N29W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ERIKA WILL ENTER THE E
CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC WILL DISSIPATE
WHILE THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E
ATLANTIC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net