[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260526
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS CENTERED NEAR 16.0N 54.4W AT 26/0300 UTC
OR ABOUT 430 NM E OF ANTIGUA MOVING W 16 KT. ESTIMATED CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 45 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM
12N-17N BETWEEN 50W-59W. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 24N31W TO 14N32W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATES THAT THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS A 700 MB
INVERTED TROUGH AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE. ISOLATED
LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-23N BETWEEN 27W-35W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 18N16W TO 12N25W TO 15N38W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
PREVAILS FROM 05N-17N BETWEEN 19W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
THE E CONUS TO OVER THE N GULF SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT
THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA
INTO THE GULF FROM 30N84W TO 29N95W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AFFECTING THE GULF
WATERS N OF 25N. AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE PREVAILS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GULF SUPPORTING ISOLATED
CONVECTION MAINLY S OF 23N. AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ARE MOVING INTO THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE MAINLY S OF 21N. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A LIGHT
TO GENTLE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE N GULF
ENHANCING CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 16N78W AND EXTENDING
ACROSS THE W AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. ISOLATED CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED ACROSS THIS AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF
DANNY...EXTENDS ACROSS DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM 20N69W TO 16N69W.
ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AFFECTING
MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTION OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE PROXIMITY
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS S OF 11N IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN AFFECTING PANAMA AND
NORTHERN COLOMBIA. LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS THE
BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR TROPICAL STORM ERIKA
TO APPROACH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THIS SYSTEM.
THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER E HISPANIOLA WILL CONTINUE MOVING
ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH CONVECTION.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER E DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AS A
RESULT OF A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THAT PORTION OF
THE ISLAND. EXPECT FOR THIS TROUGH TO CONTINUE MOVING W WITH
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC APPROACHING THE E CARIBBEAN. PLEASE REFER TO THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS
MOVING ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC...REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR
DETAILS. ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
26N77W TO 32N70W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS N OF 27W BETWEEN 66W-
75W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN
ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N27W. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ERIKA WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN. THE
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC WILL DISSIPATE WHILE THE
SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E ATLANTIC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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