[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16W/17W FROM 22N
SOUTHWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 15N TO 16N BETWEEN 18W AND 20W. ISOLATED MODERATE
ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 25N BETWEEN 15W AND 21W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W/39W FROM 10N TO 20N
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A 700 MB
TROUGH. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE
FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 34W AND 40W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W/56W FROM 21N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE WAVE COINCIDES
WITH A 700 MB TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 51W AND 57W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 15N18W TO 10N25W TO 08N30W AND
08N40W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 08N40W TO 08N50W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 60 NM
TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 09N20W 07N40W 10N50W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO...APART FROM THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS
MOVING AROUND THE 21N83W NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WAS IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT
AN EARLIER TIME. THAT PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN WEAKENING SINCE
09/2115 UTC. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS MOVING
OFFSHORE...AWAY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF FLORIDA...FROM
25N TO 28N BETWEEN FLORIDA AND 84W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 24N69W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO A GULF
OF MEXICO 1015 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N92W. THE
RIDGE EVENTUALLY CONTINUES TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. ONE INDIVIDUAL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS WITHIN
THE COMPARATIVELY LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 21N83W. A SECOND CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 16N72W JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 10N90W...INTO SOUTHERN GUATEMALA AND
EL SALVADOR...ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA FROM HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA
SOUTHWARD...ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
THIS WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH THE LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW THAT COVERS THE AREA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN A 15 NM TO 30 NM
RADIUS OF 19N74W OFF THE COAST OF HAITI. ISOLATED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG IS WITHIN 60 NM OF CUBA IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

AN 800 MB TO 600 MB INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 80W FROM 17N
SOUTHWARD.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY-TO-NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL 16N72W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN A 15 NM TO 30 NM
RADIUS OF 19N74W OFF THE COAST OF HAITI.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT 16N72W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD WITH TIME...
AND IT WILL END UP IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN CUBA...
HAITI...AND JAMAICA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB AND FOR
700 MB SHOWS THAT INVERTED TROUGHS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST...ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A WEAKENING
32N66W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO A 30N61W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 26N62W...AND TO 19N65W. AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 27N69W. ANOTHER MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FIRST
ONE...AND IT PASSES THROUGH 32N71W TO 29N75W...ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND CUBA...TO A NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
21N83W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
32N70W TO 30N73W TO 28N80W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
TO LOCALLY STRONG IS FROM THE BAHAMAS NEAR 21N NORTHWARD BETWEEN
60W AND 73W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD
ENDING AT 10/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...
IS 0.44 IN BERMUDA.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 29N64W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER TO A 23N64W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 22N TO 32N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 59W AND 70W.

AN UPPER LEVEL LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N24W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 24N30W...TO A SECOND CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 21N41W...TO 14N42W. CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW IS WITHIN 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 21N41W CYCLONIC CENTER TO 24N45W AND
27N49W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN MOST OF THE AREAS OF THE CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW...EXCEPT WITHIN A RADIUS OF 150 NM TO 240 NM OF THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE 30N24W CYCLONIC CENTER.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 22N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 70W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N54W TO
24N69W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
TO A GULF OF MEXICO 1015 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
26N92W. THE RIDGE EVENTUALLY CONTINUES TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF
COAST.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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