[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 092343
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN AUG 09 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS JUST INLAND ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA.
THE GLOBAL MODEL SHOWS THE WAVE ALONG THE 700 MB TROUGH AND THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE
MOVING OFF THE COAST BUT INCLUDES THE INLAND ARES OF W AFRICA.
THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND WITHIN 120
NM ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN 14N-18N. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION
IS INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN 19N-21N.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 37W/38W
FROM 10N-20N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
GLOBAL MODEL SHOWS THE WAVE ALONG THE 700 MB TROUGH AND THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A WEAK SURGE OF MOISTURE. THE NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT
AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE
IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN
DUST. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 55W/56W FROM
10N-20N MOVING W-NW NEAR 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
GLOBAL MODEL SHOWS THE WAVE WITHIN A BROAD 700 MB TROUGH AND THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF A LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. CLUSTERS
OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE AREA FROM 10N-13N
BETWEEN 51W-56W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS DISRUPTED BY THE TROPICAL WAVE JUST INLAND
ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA AND IS DEPICTED BEGINNING NEAR 19N17W
AND EXTENDS ALONG 11N23W TO 9N40W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 9N46W 10N51W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM
NW OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 18W-21W. REMAINDER OF THE
ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE JUST INLAND ALONG
THE COAST OF AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND E CONUS
ANCHORED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S MISSISSIPPI TO OVER THE NE GULF NEAR
28N85W SUPPORTING A WEAK 1014 MB LOW NEAR 29N87W WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING S ALONG 27N87W TO 24N89W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF
26N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 86W-90W. A SEABREEZE IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE FROM MIAMI
TO CEDAR KEY AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA FROM
CEDAR KEY TO THE BIG BEND AREA. THE SURFACE TROUGH SPLITS A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE WITH A 1016 MB HIGH NEAR 26N92W AND A 1017 MB HIGH
NEAR 24N87W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS THE
LOW/SURFACE TROUGH DRIFT SE. THE TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MON. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE SAME AREA WED. WEAK
RIDGE WILL EXTEND SE TO NW ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN WITH AN UPPER LOW
CENTERED S OF HISPANIOLA AND A SECOND SMALLER UPPER LOW OVER W
CUBA. THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER
HISPANIOLA...CUBA...JAMAICA AND N OF 20N BETWEEN 81W-86W.
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FAR S CARIBBEAN IS BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N
TO INLAND OVER VENEZUELA AND NW COLOMBIA BETWEEN 65W-74W. THIS
IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS
EVENING. MAINLY MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
BASIN THROUGH MIDWEEK EXCEPT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS
IN THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND NW
VENEZUELA. TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN MON AND INTO
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY THE UPPER TROUGH COUPLED WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING ARE
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER HAITI
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE N COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MID
WEEK. LINGERING MOISTURE COULD AGAIN PRODUCE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MON AND TUE. WED WILL BRING A INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND INCREASE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS THE NEXT
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES TOWARD THE ISLAND TUE NIGHT/WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 60W SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N71W TO 30N75W WHERE IT
BECOMES A STATIONARY FRONT TO OFF THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 29N90W.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS THE E EXTENDING FROM 29N73W TO ACROSS
THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS TO NEAR 25N79W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM SE OF THE COLD FRONT AND WITHIN
120 NM SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE
FROM 21N73W TO 24N70W AND WITHIN 200 NM OF LINE FROM 23N69W TO
TO BEYOND 32N63W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH W OF THE AZORES AND
EXTENDING A SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 32N50W TO E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR
25N70W. W ATLC FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH MON.
SURFACE RIDGE WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH WED THEN SHIFT N WED
NIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NW PORTION WED
NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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