[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300529
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU APR 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 9N13W TO 5N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG
3N24W 2N38W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
37W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THEN TURNS W TO OVER
TEXAS. THE REMNANT COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS
FLORIDA BETWEEN DAYTONA BEACH AND TAMPA BAY ALONG 24N85W TO OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR MERIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE
COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE E OF PENSACOLA. DENSE LOW TO MID
CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE S OF 27N W OF 85W. A
SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN OVER THE W GULF IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT WITH A 1019 MB HIGH JUST OFFSHORE OF TAMPICO MEXICO. A
SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N81W
ACROSS W CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 24N E OF 82W. THE LATEST NESDIS
HAZARD MAPPING SYSTEM FIRE AND SMOKE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
FIRES OVER S MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA CONTINUES TO SHOW SMOKE
ACROSS THE SE GULF E OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL WILL MOVE SE
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND IS ANCHORED
JUST S OF PANAMA. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT OVER THE CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ACROSS W CUBA
NEAR 22N83W TO 18N86W GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS N
OF 19N. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM 17N-21N W OF 86W. BROKEN HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS COVER
THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W LEAVING THE E CARIBBEAN WITH REMARKABLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL AND SE CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY FRI. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL OVERNIGHT AND REACH
FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO E HONDURAS THU WHERE IT WILL STALL AND
DISSIPATE THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...
BROKEN HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS COVER PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND TONIGHT
BUT NO RAIN IS INDICATED. HIGH TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES WILL
BE THE NORM FOR THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
THE DRY/STABLE ATMOSPHERE PREVAILING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE W INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLC. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH
32N43W ALONG 28N58W 27N67W TO 28N71W WHERE IT BECOMES WARM FRONT
TO A 1003 MB LOW OFF THE GEORGIA COAST NEAR 32N76W. A COLD FRONT
EXTEND FROM THIS LOW ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR DAYTONA BEACH. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 27N W OF 43W TO THE FLORIDA COAST.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 22N-26N W OF 72W INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE REMAINDER
OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN
THE E ATLC BY A 1025 MB HIGH N OF MADIERA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE
AXIS THROUGH 32N22W ALONG 24N40W TO 20N67W. THE W ATLC LOW WILL
MOVE N OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM NEAR 31N77W TO S FLORIDA THEN FROM NEAR 31N70W TO
CENTRAL CUBA THU NIGHT AND FROM 32N57W ALONG 28N65W TO CENTRAL
CUBA FRI NIGHT THEN WEAKEN FROM 32N55W ALONG 26N65W TO E CUBA
SAT NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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