[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292333
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED APR 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N13W TO
03N15W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
03N15W TO 02N32W TO 01S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS AT
WITHIN 50 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 20W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN GEORGIA SUPPORTING A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE FAR W ATLANTIC AFFECTING THE E GULF. THE
1003 MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 31N80W EXTENDING ITS COLD
FRONT SW REACHING THE E GULF FROM 29N83W TO 24N87W TO 19N93W. A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N83W TO 21N87W THEN INTO THE W
CARIBBEAN. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT AN AREA
OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SE GULF AND THE
FLORIDA STRAITS MAINLY S OF 25N AND E OF 84W. A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE NW GULF. THIS SAME AREA IS INFLUENCED BY UPPER-LEVEL
MOISTURE COMING FROM THE EPAC DUE TO A SW FLOW ALOFT. A GENTLE
TO MODERATE NE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN
WHILE A LIGHT SE FLOW IS OBSERVED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS
THE SE GULF. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE THE COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE E GULF AND FLORIDA
PENINSULA WITH CONVECTION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING
ACROSS BASIN AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS ALOFT ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR
17N76W. THIS AIRMASS IS TRANSPORTING SAHARAN DUST TO THE AREA
AND PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS MAINLY E OF 80W. TO THE W
OF 80W...MID TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AS UPPER-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT CONVECTION ACROSS THE SE
GULF...FLORIDA STRAITS AND NORTHERN CUBA. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE S REACHING THE W
CARIBBEAN FROM 21N87W TO 17N85W. AGRICULTURAL BURNING IS STILL
NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS HONDURAS AND SMOKE IS MOVING
ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND THE CARIBBEAN WATERS S OF CUBA.
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL E OF 80W EXCEPT S OF 16N
BETWEEN 69W-73W WHERE FRESH TRADES ARE DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER
DATA. A LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS W OF 80W. OVER
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE W CARIBBEAN WITH
CONVECTION DISSIPATING THE SMOKE ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND
W CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL TODAY AND SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS DRY NW WINDS ALOFT MAINTAIN
STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1003 MB SURFACE LOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC CENTERED
NEAR 31N80W. WHILE ITS COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND THE E GULF OF MEXICO...ITS WARM FRONT EXTENDS E
FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 29N75W TO 27N69W. FROM THIS LAST POINT
THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY EXTENDING TO 28N59W TO 31N46W. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED N OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 28N69W TO 31N55W. A BROAD AREA
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN 46W-
76W. TO THE S OF THESE FEATURES...UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE BAHAMAS FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 74W-
82W. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN...A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS
SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR 36N15W. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...THE SURFACE
LOW ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING WHILE MOVING
NE WITH CONVECTION. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL FOLLOW THE LOW.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


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