[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251035
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 11N16W ALONG 7N17W TO 5N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 2N29W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 36W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N W OF 47W TO
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 3W-23W AND
FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 37W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND THE E CONUS INTO THE W ATLC. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE W GULF W OF LINE
FROM VERMILION BAY LOUISIANA ALONG 26N94W TO TAMPICO MEXICO. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING
WITH SOME PATCHY FOG STILL BEING REPORTED OVER THE NW GULF. A
WEAK ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND W OVER THE GULF TODAY
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL DIP INTO THE N GULF MON
MORNING AND STALL ALONG 28N BEFORE RETREATING AS A WARM FRONT
OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR
17N82W COVERING THE ENTIRE BASIN AND EXTENDING OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE W ATLC. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES
TO SHOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE BASIN
THIS MORNING. LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER HISPANIOLA
AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT OFFSHORE OF THE GULF
OF HONDURAS THROUGH MON. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ALONG THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE EXTREME SW DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND SE HAITI S OF 19N BETWEEN 70W-73W. THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
OFFICE OF METEOROLOGY IS FORECASTING HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND. THESE TEMPERATURES COULD RESULT IN OROGRAPHIC LIFTING
IN THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN GIVING THE AREA OF W DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND E HAITI ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W
ATLC WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE AREA N OF 29N W OF
73W AND ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 32N76W. THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND INTO THE NW ATLC DIPS SE
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 22N SUPPORTING A SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS. THE LEADING COLD FRONT IS WEAKENING AND EXTENDS FROM A
1008 MB LOW NEAR 32N49W ALONG 26N56W TO 25N67W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 49W-54W. THE SECOND COLD FRONT
HAS RETREATED N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE TRAILING FRONT
EXTENDS THROUGH 32N60W TO 28N65W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 27N72W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM
28N62W TO BEYOND 32N58W. AN UPPER TROUGH N OF THE E/CENTRAL ATLC
IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
32N30W AND EXTENDS ALONG 29N35W TO 29N40W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS
STATIONARY/WARM FRONT TO THE 1008 MB LOW NEAR 32N49W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC S OF 28N E OF 60W IS DOMINATED BY A
SURFACE RIDGE AND ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 24N34W. THE
LEADING CENTRAL ATLC COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TODAY. THE
TRAILING FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE N PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA. W ATLC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE N OF THE AREA SUN AND SEND A COLD
FRONT INTO W ATLC EARLY MON THAT WILL STRETCH ALONG 27N TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

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