[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250526
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 8N13W TO 4N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG
2N27W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 31W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 1W-
14W AND FROM 1N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 36W-42W AND W OF 46W
TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN COVERING THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND THE E CONUS INTO THE W ATLC. A REMNANT WARM
FRONT REMAINS OVER THE N GULF EXTENDING FROM 28N84W TO INLAND
OVER LOUISIANA NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI BORDER. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF THE FRONT TO OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BETWEEN PANAMA CITY AND THE ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI
BORDER. A SEABREEZE SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
BUT IS ONLY PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS INLAND AND OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG REPORTED OVER THE NW GULF.
THE WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT N AND WEAKEN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. A WEAK
ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
SUN NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL DIP INTO THE NORTHERN GULF MON
MORNING AND STALL ALONG 28N BEFORE LIFTING BACK N AS A WARM
FRONT LATE MON NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR
18N83W COVERING THE ENTIRE BASIN AND EXTENDING OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE W ATLC. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES
TO SHOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE BASIN
TONIGHT. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIED OUT OVER CUBA
WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER HISPANIOLA...PUERTO
RICO...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT OFFSHORE OF THE GULF
OF HONDURAS THROUGH MON. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ALONG THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL DIMINISH SAT NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE EXTREME W DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND E HAITI BETWEEN 70W-73W. THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC OFFICE OF
METEOROLOGY IS FORECASTING HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. THESE
TEMPERATURES COULD RESULT IN OROGRAPHIC LIFTING IN THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN GIVING THE AREA OF W DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND E HAITI
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W
ATLC WITH A SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE AREA N OF 29N W OF 73W
ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 32N78W. THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND INTO THE NW ATLC DIPS SE OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 22N SUPPORTING A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS.
THE LEADING FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 32N52W AND
EXTENDS ALONG 27N56W TO 25N62W WHERE IT DISSIPATES AS A
STATIONARY FRONT TO 25N69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM
SE OF THE FRONT E OF 58W. THE SECOND COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
REGION NEAR 32N59W AND EXTENDS ALONG 31N62W 30N68W TO 27N72W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM SE OF
THE FRONT BETWEEN 61W-68W. THE TRAILING FRONT IS JUST N OF THE
REGION AND EXTENDS TO 32N68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 31N TO 33N BETWEEN 59W-67W. AN UPPER TROUGH N OF THE
E/CENTRAL ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N32W AND EXTENDS ALONG 29N35W TO 30N41W
WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A WARM FRONT TO THE 1010 MB LOW NEAR
32N52W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE COLD FRONT. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE THAT
COVERS THE AREA S OF 30N E OF 60W AND ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH
NEAR 24N28W. THE LEADING CENTRAL ATLC COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE SECOND FRONT WILL REACH
FROM 32N59W NEAR 28N65W TO 26N72W EARLY ON SAT AND WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE FAR S WATERS N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES SAT
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE TRAILING FRONT WILL STAY JUST N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW
WATERS EARLY MON AND EXTEND FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA
MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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