[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061017
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON APR 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTH AMERICA AND
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS THE W ATLC. PLEASE SEE LATEST NWS
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 7N12W TO 2N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 2N17W TO 3S30W TO
THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5S37W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7S BETWEEN 10W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

10-15 KT SE RETURN FLOW IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NE GULF N OF 29N
BETWEEN 86W-89W. THE GOES-R IFR PROBABILITY IMAGERY SHOWS FOG
LOW STRATUS CONDITIONS ALONG THE LOUISIANA AND TEXAS COASTS N OF
28N BETWEEN 91W-97W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER
THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N
GULF N OF 24N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED
SURFACE RETURN FLOW WITH SHOWERS PERSISTING OVER THE NE GULF AND
N FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA AND WEAKEST WINDS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
PUERTO RICO...S HAITI...W HONDURAS...AND GUATEMALA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE. A GALE IS FORECAST TO START AT O600 UTC TUE ALONG
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER OVER S HAITI. EXPECT MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO MOVE W WITH THE TRADEWINDS.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL SUPPRESS THE FORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM
31N64W TO 28N72W TO 28N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM
OF THE FRONT. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N58W TO 25N63W
TO 20N64W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN
53W-57W. A 1031 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
36N41W. SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC
N OF 20N E OF 50W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-70W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE FRONT.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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