[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060537
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON APR 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTH AMERICA AND
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS THE W ATLC. PLEASE SEE LATEST NWS
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 11N15W TO 4N17W TO 0N20W TO 3S29W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
3S29W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5S37W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-4S BETWEEN 10W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

10-15 KT SE RETURN FLOW IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF N OF
28N BETWEEN 85W-92W. THE GOES-R IFR PROBABILITY IMAGERY SHOWS
IFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE LOUISIANA AND TEXAS COASTS N OF 28N
BETWEEN 91W-97W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE
GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N
GULF N OF 24N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED
SURFACE RETURN FLOW WITH SHOWERS PERSISTING OVER THE NE GULF AND
N FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA AND WEAKEST WINDS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...E CUBA...W HONDURAS...AND GUATEMALA.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. A GALE IS FORECAST TO START AT O600 UTC
TUE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER OVER S HAITI. EXPECT MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO MOVE W WITH THE TRADEWINDS.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL SUPPRESS THE FORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N62W TO 28N70W
TO 28N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N58W TO 24N62W TO 20N64W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 55W-59W. A
1032 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N40W. SURFACE
RIDGING IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF
50W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF
20N BETWEEN 50W-70W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE FRONT. EXPECT THE
FRONT TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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