[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050525
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN APR 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 12N16W TO 01N22W. THE ITCZ IS FROM 01N22W TO THE
COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 02S44W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT COVERS THE E CONUS SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE BASIN
FROM 29N83W TO 23N98W. FROM THIS LAST POINT THE FRONT BECOMES
STATIONARY EXTENDING ACROSS NE MEXICO THROUGH 31N108W. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES. A 1027 MB SURFACE
HIGH CENTERED ACROSS E US NEAR 38N88W EXTENDS S BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHING THE NORTHERN GULF SUPPORTING FAIR
WEATHER. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE EPAC EXTENDS ITS
RIDGE TO THE N REACHING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GULF SUPPORTING
SUBSIDENCE. A SLIGHT TO GENTLE NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF 27N WHILE A SLIGHT E TO SE
FLOW IS OBSERVED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
MOVE S AND STALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF ENHANCING CONVECTION. A
SURFACE RIDGE WILL THEN PREVAIL ACROSS THE NE GULF THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW
CARIBBEAN WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL
ATLANTIC EXTENDS S REACHING THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N E OF 70W.
THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC ALONG 60W...PUERTO RICO AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. NEAR
ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE S CARIBBEAN. SATELLITE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE
AIR ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN MAINLY W OF 70W. GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN
WHILE A SLIGHT EASTERLY FLOW IS DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA N
OF 17N AND W OF 75W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE
ATLANTIC UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE E AWAY FROM THE AREA. A
SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN WITH FAIR WEATHER.

HISPANIOLA...

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADES CONTINUES TO
GENERATE ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND. SIMILAR PATTERN
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM 33N70W TO 30N81W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. TO THE SE...AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH IS DEVELOPING NEAR 24N61W SUPPORTING CONVECTION
FROM 20N-28N BETWEEN 57W-62W. A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 23N64W TO 27N45W
THEN BECOMES A COLD FRONT FROM THAT LAST POINT THROUGH 32N28W.
ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES. A 1031 MB
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N42W EXTENDS S SUPPORTING FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO
CONTINUE MOVING E WITH CONVECTION. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN WEAKENING AND BECOME DIFFUSE.
SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE DOMINATING THE E ATLANTIC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA


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