[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 042346
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT APR 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 12N16W ALONG 4N16W TO S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 19W. THE ENTIRE
ITCZ IS S OF THE EQUATOR. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO S OF THE EQUATOR E OF 18W TO THE PRIME
MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS AND IS SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO ALONG 28N90W 26N96W THEN S INTO MEXICO NEAR 24N98W.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
60 NM S OF THE FRONT E OF 84W TO INLAND OVER FLORIDA. ISOLATED
SHOWERS DOT THE AREA N OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT TO
29N W OF 88W TO INLAND OVER TEXAS AND FAR NE MEXICO. AN UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS S MEXICO AND THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE NW GULF NEAR 28N94W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS
BRIDGING THE FRONT COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF AND IS
ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH OVER N ARKANSAS. THIS IS GIVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. THE COLD
FRONT WILL STALL FROM NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA TO NE MEXICO TONIGHT
THEN BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH SUN. SURFACE RIDGE WILL THEN PREVAIL
ACROSS THE NE GULF THROUGH THE FIRST OF THE WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN
WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS S OVER THE
NE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N E OF 78W. NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
DOMINATES THE S CARIBBEAN. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND THUS DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE
ENTIRE BASIN. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
INLAND OVER PUERTO RICO...PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND
ALONG THE S COAST OF CUBA. NE TO E TRADE WINDS ARE SHIFTING THE
SHOWERS INTO THE MONA PASSAGE OFF PUERTO RICO AND ALONG THE S
COAST OF CUBA...HAITI...AND JAMAICA. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL SHIFT E THROUGH SUN NIGHT THEN BE
REPLACED BY A NEW HIGH MOVING E OFF THE U.S. ATLC COAST TO
MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.

HISPANIOLA...
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF
THE ISLAND THIS EVENING WITH THE SHOWERS SHIFTING INTO THE
CARIBBEAN ALONG THE S COAST OF HAITI. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LINGER THROUGH MON AND COUPLED WITH THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
COULD GENERATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
MON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NE ATLC ALONG 32N35W ALONG
2960W TO THEN S TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 24N63W THEN OVER THE NE
CARIBBEAN AND IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE E ATLC
NEAR 32N30W ALONG 28N37W TO 27N44W WHERE IT BECOMES A STATIONARY
FRONT ALONG 24N56W TO 23N66W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE S OF
THE STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 23N59W TO 21N65W. THE UPPER
DIFFLUENCE TO THE E OF THE UPPER LOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N-26N BETWEEN 56W-64W. A
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING FROM A 1029 MB HIGH IN THE N/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
34N45W ALONG 32N54W 29N67W TO JUST N OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR
27N80W AND A WEAKER RIDGE BRIDGING THE FRONT OVER THE E ATLC.
THIS IS KEEPING MOST OF THE ATLC WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING.
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL SHIFT E THROUGH SUN NIGHT AS
THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE SE GEORGIA COAST
LATER THIS EVENING AND WILL REACH FROM 32N75W TO N CENTRAL
FLORIDA TONIGHT AND FROM BERMUDA TO S/CENTRAL FLORIDA SUN WHERE
IT WILL STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE ALONG 28N THROUGH SUN NIGHT. A
NEW HIGH WILL MOVE E OFF THE U.S. ATLC COAST SUN NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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