[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041119
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT APR 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 06N11W TO 02S27W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THIS
POINT TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 05S38W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 00N-07N AND E OF 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 33N51W EXTENDS ITS RIDGE AXIS W ACROSS THE BASIN SUPPORTING
FAIR WEATHER. A 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE E GULF NEAR
28N85W. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING SE ACROSS S TEXAS AND NORTHERN
MEXICO APPROACHING THE NW GULF WATERS WITH CONVECTION. SLIGHT TO
GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN. LATEST
OBSERVATIONS DEPICT FOG ACROSS THE NW GULF MAINLY N OF 27N AND W
OF 92W. THIS FOG WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
AND DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
GULF WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE
W/CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS SW REACHING THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING
FAIR WEATHER. DESPITE THIS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE
TRANSPORTED BY THE GENTLE TRADES GENERATING ISOLATED CONVECTION
AFFECTING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN INCLUDING THE LESSER
ANTILLES...PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. HIGHER WIND SPEEDS ARE
DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA N OF COLOMBIA S OF 14N BETWEEN
72W-77W WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA AND SOUTH
AMERICA IS THE STRONGEST. EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE ISLAND AS RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS OVER THE ISLAND. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 33N51W AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN. TO THE E OF THIS
HIGH CENTER...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
FROM 31N37W TO 23N57W. THE FRONT BECOMES WEAK AND STATIONARY
FROM THIS POINT TO 23N70W. SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 58W-67W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM LOCATED FROM 30N36W TO
26N43W. A LARGE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST AND DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS
CONTINUES OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 05N-20N AND E OF 51W. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC TO CONTINUE MOVING E WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE W ATLANTIC ENHANCING CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA


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