[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040519
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT APR 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12W TO 03S27W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THIS
POINT TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 05S37W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 00N-07N AND E OF 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
33N54W EXTENDS ITS RIDGE AXIS W ACROSS THE BASIN SUPPORTING FAIR
WEATHER. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING SE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
APPROACHING THE NW GULF WATERS ENHANCING CONVECTION. SLIGHT TO
GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN. FOG IS
ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NW GULF MAINLY N OF 27N AND W OF
92W. THIS FOG WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AND DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE GULF WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE
W/CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS SW REACHING THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING
FAIR WEATHER. DESPITE THIS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE
TRANSPORTED BY THE GENTLE TRADES GENERATING ISOLATED CONVECTION
AFFECTING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN INCLUDING THE LESSER
ANTILLES...PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. HIGHER WIND SPEEDS ARE
DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA N OF COLOMBIA S OF 14N BETWEEN
72W-77W. EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE ISLAND AS RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS OVER THE ISLAND. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
33N54W. TO THE E OF THIS FEATURE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N37W TO 24N53W. THE FRONT IS THEN
WEAKENING WHILE EXTENDING THROUGH 23N68W. SCATTERED LIGHT TO
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 54W-67W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT LOCATED FROM 30N38W TO
27N41W. A LARGE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST AND DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS
CONTINUES OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 05N-28N AND E OF 50W. A 1025
MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 29N35W AND EXTENDING
ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO
CONTINUE MOVING E WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT ANOTHER COLD
FRONT TO ENTER THE W ATLANTIC ENHANCING CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA


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