[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012321
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED APR 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 5N9W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 14W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND CONTINUES THROUGH 1S25W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
4S38W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4S TO 2N BETWEEN
14W AND 23W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 23W AND 38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTER IS LOCATED OFFSHORE OF SW
FLORIDA NEAR 26N86W WITH RIDGING EXTENDING TO SE LOUISIANA. SE
RETURN FLOW AT 10-15 KT COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF EXCEPT
15-20 KT LOCALLY IN THE CENTRAL GULF NW OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. SEAS ARE 1-3 FT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF
WITH 4-6 FT SEAS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF.
OBSERVATIONS IN THE NW GULF WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TEXAS AND
WESTERN GULF CURRENTLY REPORT REDUCED VISIBILITIES OF
3-5 NM WITH FAIR WEATHER REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF.
LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE BASIN ORIGINATING FROM THE
TROPICAL E PACIFIC OCEAN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
BASIN EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE THEY ARE FRESH TO
STRONG. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG IN AND NEAR THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE AS WELL AS S OF HISPANIOLA THU NIGHT THROUGH
FRI. SEAS ARE MAINLY 4-7 FT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT NEAR
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE THEY ARE 8-11 FT. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN THE NE CARIBBEAN...BETWEEN CUBA AND
JAMAICA...AND OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN NICARAGUA AND NORTHERN
HISPANIOLA.

AT THE UPPER LEVELS...MAINLY ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW IS IN PLACE
WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN ORIGINATING FROM THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS PUSHED INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING
FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO EASTERN HONDURAS WITH DRY AND MAINLY STABLE
AIR IN PLACE.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE ISLAND AS A STATIONARY
FRONT IS LOCATED JUST NW OF HISPANIOLA. THIS FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY PERSISTING UNTIL FULL DISSIPATION OF THE FRONT OCCURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N42W TO 25N50W TO NEAR THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN 30-60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST
TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ALONG 32N EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE SOUTH
CAROLINA AND GEORGIA BORDER. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING S AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 30N W OF 68W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
APPEARS TO BE FORMING ACROSS THE WATERS E OF FLORIDA ALONG 77W
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THIS FRONT IS
FORECAST TO DROP TO THE S ALONG 29N-30N TONIGHT...WITH THE
SOUTHERN/WESTERN PORTION DISSIPATING BY THU EVENING WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS TO THE E ACROSS
THE OPEN CENTRAL ATLC WATERS.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 40W FROM 18N TO 24N. ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING NEAR THIS FEATURE.

AT THE UPPER LEVELS...TROUGHING IS PRESENT FROM 32N52W TO NEAR
THE TURKS AND CAICOS WITH UPPER MOISTURE STREAMING IN ACROSS THE
ATLC W OF 65W. RIDGING EXTENDS AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH FROM 32N38W
TO AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE WELL TO THE S-SW NEAR 07N55W. A SHARP
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N24W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 43W. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

LEWITSKY

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