[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011702
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED APR 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 5N9W TO 1S14W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 0N20W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3S39W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-3S BETWEEN 14W-22W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 0N-4S BETWEEN 22W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 26N79W WITH
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING TO SE LOUISIANA. 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE GOES-R IFR PROBABILITY
IMAGERY SHOWS IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TEXAS COAST.
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER MOST OF THE GULF EXCEPT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE N TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST WITH SURFACE RIDGING REMAINING OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH IFR CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST OVER THE NE MEXICO AND TEXAS COASTS WITH MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER ELSEWHERE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WIND
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA AND WEAKEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST
OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA. THE TAIL END OF A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT PERSISTS OVER HAITI FROM 21N70W TO 19N74W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER HAITI...THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...E CUBA...AND
JAMAICA. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HONDURAS AND N
NICARAGUA. FURTHER E... SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN E OF 72W MOVING W WITH THE TRADEWINDS. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
ALONG 60W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE ISLAND AS A FRONT
PERSISTS OVER HAITI. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
ANOTHER 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 35N70W TO SOUTH
CAROLINA AT 33N79W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF
30N BETWEEN 71W-74W. A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE N
BAHAMAS NEAR 26N79W WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 31N43W TO
25N50W TO 24N64W TO 21N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM
OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N40W TO 19N41W.
SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 25N E OF 35W. AN
AREA OF AFRICAN DUST AND DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS IS ALSO OVER THE
E ATLANTIC FROM 4N-26N E OF 40W. OF INTEREST OVER THE THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 24N
BETWEEN 60W-80W SUPPORTING A SURFACE FRONT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-45W
SUPPORTING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 31N61W TO 29N70W
TO 30N77W...WHILE THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT DISSIPATES S OF 31N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

FORMOSA


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