[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281036
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
15N28W TO 7N29W MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT. THE SSMI TPW AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-15N
BETWEEN 26W-33W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE S BAHAMAS AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 23N74W TO 11N75W...MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER HISPANIOLA.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS NORTH
OF 14N.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...SOUTHERN MEXICO...AND E PAC WATERS WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 24N95W TO 13N95W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE SSMI TPW AND
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN
THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER S MEXICO AND ARE
MOVING INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS IN THE EXTREME S PORTIONS OF THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 21N TO 24N BETWEEN 89W AND 94W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO
7N25W TO 6N30W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 6N30W TO 7N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOVING OFFSHORE OF AFRICA FROM 5N TO 10N
BETWEEN 10W AND 15W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N TO
7N BETWEEN 20W AND 26W AND ALSO FROM 2N TO 9N BETWEEN 34W AND
41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND W GULF. SEE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM
FLORIDA AT 29N83W TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 28N90W
TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 26N97W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 100 NM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER FL. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ANTICYCLONE IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 82W AND 87W.
MAINLY E TO SE SURFACE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KT ARE OCCURRING ACROSS
THE GULF WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF...WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTING NORTH AND OUT OF THE EASTERN GULF.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN GULF. EXPECT ENHANCED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE THE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION ABOVE. WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN
UPPER LOW OVER HISPANIOLA AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER FL
IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN
79W AND 84W. MAINLY 10 TO 15 KT SURFACE TRADE WINDS ARE
OCCURRING ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE TROPICAL
WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE W CARIBBEAN WHILE THE UPPER LOW REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY.

...HISPANIOLA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS NOW MOVING W OF HISPANIOLA WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE AREA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA AND OFFSHORE WATERS. ALTHOUGH THE WAVE WILL SHIFT
WEST OF THE REGION...A MOIST AIRMASS AND THE PRESENCE OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL SUPPORT CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
LOCALIZED FLOODING AND POSSIBLE MUDSLIDES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SURFACE FEATURES...A COLD FRONT IS FROM 31N66W NORTHEASTWARD TO
37N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM
28N TO 31N BETWEEN 57W AND 63W.  A WEAK 1014 MB LOW IS CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N46W. A SECOND 1014 MB LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 24N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S AND E OF
THIS SECOND LOW FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 47W AND 51W. A THIRD
1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 14N44W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE
CENTER...MAINLY IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
LOCATED FROM 29N35W TO 24N38W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100
NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A NEARLY STATIONARY
UPPER LOW IS OVER HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO THE
NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 63W AND 74W. AN
UPPER LOW IS NEAR 32N35W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
30N TO 33N BETWEEN 32W AND 39W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


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