[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280552
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
15N26W TO 7N28W MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT. THE SSMI TPW AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAINLY S OF 16N. THE GOES-
R AIRMASS PRODUCT SHOWS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR N OF 16N.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED IN THE MOIST
REGION FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 25W-32W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE S BAHAMAS AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 23N73W TO 11N74W...MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER HISPANIOLA.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 69W-76W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 100 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...SOUTHERN MEXICO...AND E PAC WATERS WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 25N94W TO 14N95W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE SSMI TPW AND
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
INLAND OVER S MEXICO AND GUATEMALA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
100 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 8N13W TO
7N20W TO 5N30W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 5N30W TO 9N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO MOVE OFFSHORE OF AFRICA FROM
6N TO 10N E OF 14W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-9N
BETWEEN 34W AND 43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND W GULF. SEE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM
FLORIDA AT 28N83W TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 28N90W
TO THE N MEXICO COAST AT 25N97W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-31N BETWEEN 81W-89W...AND FROM 25N-
31N BETWEEN 89W-98W. ELSEWHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER FL. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ANTICYCLONE IS HELPING TO ENHANCE
CONVECTION OVER THE E GULF. MAINLY E TO NE SURFACE WINDS OF 10
TO 20 KT ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE GULF WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
FRONT TO DRIFT N WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT A
SURFACE LOW TO FOR OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
FL AND THE E GULF AS WELL WHICH WILL HELP TO ENHANCE CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE THE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION ABOVE. MAINLY 10 TO 15 KT SURFACE TRADE WINDS ARE
OCCURRING ACROSS THE BASIN. AN UPPER LOW OVER HISPANIOLA IS
INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AIRMASS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N BETWEEN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
AND 69W. ELSEWHERE...WEAKENING DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE CUBA AND ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF CUBA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MOVE INTO THE W CARIBBEAN WHILE THE UPPER LOW REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY.

...HISPANIOLA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS NOW MOVING W OF HISPANIOLA WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE AREA. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. ALTHOUGH THE
WAVE WILL SHIFT WEST OF THE REGION...A MOIST AIRMASS AND THE
PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED CONVECTION FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING AND POSSIBLE
MUDSLIDES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N78W SW TO N FLORIDA NEAR
29N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE FRONT. A WEAK
1014 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N47W. A
SECOND 1014 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS S AND E OF THIS SECOND LOW FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN
46W AND 53W. A THIRD 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 14N43W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60
NM OF THE CENTER. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...DIFFLUENCE IN
THE VICINITY OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 26N TO 31N BETWEEN 33W AND 39W. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE N OF THE UPPER LOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 59W-72W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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