[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270552
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E ATLANTIC FROM 9N17W TO 16N17W MOVING
W AT 20 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 15N
BETWEEN 17W AND 20W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 12N68W TO 22N67W
CROSSING BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW AND IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 16N TO 22N BETWEEN 60W AND 71W. ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N TO 13N BETWEEN 65W AND
69W. THE WAVE WILL REACH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY AND THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SUNDAY. THE UPPER-LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
NEAR PUERTO RICO AND THE UK/US VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE VERY UNSTABLE WITH THE POTENTIAL
OF MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W YUCATAN PENINSULA MOVING W AT 10
TO 15 KT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING MAINLY NEAR THE
COASTS AND INLAND ACROSS THE YUCATAN...BELIZE...AND HONDURAS.
THIS WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE SW GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE OVER
THE WEEKEND.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 11N18W TO 12N35W AND THEN
FROM 12N44W TO 10N48W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 10N48W TO NEAR THE
S AMERICA COAST AT 10N61W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
7N TO 12N BETWEEN 22W AND 27W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
NOTED ELSEWHERE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS CENTERED ACROSS TX WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER S
MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 19N94W TO A 1011 MB
SURFACE LOW NEAR 26N94W. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THIS TROUGH
AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH AND RIDGE
ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 26N TO 28N
BETWEEN 92W AND 97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO OCCURRING S OF 22N OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH. A WEAKENING
STATIONARY FROM EXTENDS FROM THE SURFACE LOW NEAR 26N94W TO THE
FL W COAST NEAR 27N83W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING MAINLY WITHIN 150 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THIS FRONT.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE COMBINATION OF WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...ABUNDANT MOISTURE...AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
WILL SUPPORT ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR PUERTO RICO WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SW OF THIS LOW INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS ACROSS S MEXICO AND E VENEZUELA. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW AND SURROUNDING UPPER
RIDGES IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N TO 22N
BETWEEN 71W AND 80W...AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 8N
TO 14N BETWEEN 71W AND 76W. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE E
CARIBBEAN IS DISCUSSED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE VERY
LITTLE...WHILE THE TROPICAL WAVE CROSSES THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
TRADE WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 15 KT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
MOST OF THE BASIN.

...HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER HISPANIOLA AND OFFSHORE
WATERS AS AN UPPER LOW INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING TROPICAL
WAVE IN A MOIST AIRMASS. EXPECT ENHANCED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY AND THE TROPICAL WAVE CROSSES THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N78W INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 100 NM OF EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
OVER THE WEEKEND. A 1014 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 28N46W DRIFTING
NORTHWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N51W THROUGH THIS LOW
TO 31N45W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING 23N TO 31N
BETWEEN 40W AND 52W. ANOTHER 1014 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 22N35W
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 15N40W THROUGH THE LOW TO
30N27W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 50NM OF THE TROUGH
AXIS WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION OCCURRING FROM 28N TO 30N BETWEEN
25W AND 29W. A THIRD SURFACE LOW OF 1013 MB IS LOCATED NEAR
14N44W AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 41W AND 45W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


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