[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261748
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 65W FROM 12N OVER
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO 22N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THIS WAVE IS
MOVING BENEATH AN UPPER LOW THAT IS CENTERED OVER PUERTO RICA
WHICH IS GENERATING THE ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS EXITING THE W CARIBBEAN AND IS OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM 21N87W TO OVER EL SALVADOR NEAR 13N89W MOVING W
NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W OF AN
UPPER RIDGE WITH SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS S OF 18N W OF 87W TO INLAND OVER BELIZE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 21N16W AND CONTINUES OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG
16N23W THEN 13N29W THROUGH A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 13N42W TO 11N48W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 12W-17W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 40W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES FROM THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO W TEXAS GIVING THE GULF W-SW FLOW
ALOFT. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE FAR SW GULF
OF MEXICO IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF FROM 24N-29N.
THIS ACTIVITY IS FURTHER ENHANCED BY A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND TAMPA BAY TO 27N85W
WHERE IT DISSIPATES ALONG 25N86W TO 24N88W AND A SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE W GULF FROM 29N94W 27N96W TO 24N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 22N TO OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE
MOVING OVER THE YUCATAN. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT N AND DISSIPATE
THROUGH TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN COVERS THE AREA W OF 82W
AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N-22N W OF 80W TO INLAND OVER
HONDURAS AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED
OVER PUERTO RICO WITH THE RESULTING UPPER TROUGH DOMINATING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN AND THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING TO
COLOMBIA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE N OF 14N BETWEEN 59N-70W INCLUDING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM
DOMINICA TO OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. THIS UPPER
TROUGH IS GENERATING A SECOND AREA OF ACTIVITY WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N E OF 80W TO
INLAND OVER PANAMA AND COLOMBIA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 14N BETWEEN 70W-76W. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E
CARIBBEAN WILL REACH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND THE W
CARIBBEAN SAT.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SKIES ARE RELATIVELY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND.
HOWEVER...THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE TROPICAL
WAVE AND THE UPPER LOW OVER PUERTO RICO WILL BE MOVING W FROM
OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS SPREADING SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
THE MONA PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON THEN ACROSS HISPANIOLA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE SE U.S. COAST FROM NORTH
CAROLINA TO FLORIDA SUPPORTING A WEAK 1016 MB LOW OFF THE COAST
OF SOUTH CAROLINA WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ENTERING THE
REGION THROUGH 32N78W THEN ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR MELBOURNE
CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE
UPPER LOW OVER PUERTO RICO COVERS THE SW ATLC GENERATING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N-
19N W OF 50W ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 59W-68W. AN UPPER
TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS 32N42W ALONG 29N46W TO 26N49W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N BETWEEN 41W-44W. A WEAK LOW
LEVEL 1014 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 22N34W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING ALONG 19N36W TO 17N40W AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90
NM OF THE SURFACE LOW. W ATLC FRONT WILL LIFT N ALONG THE
FLORIDA COAST AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH SAT. N EXTENT OF A
E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FAR S WATERS
TODAY THROUGH SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

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