[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240547
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED SEP 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
22N29W TO A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 18N30W TO 12N29W...MOVING W AT 10
KT. METEOSAT SAL IMAGERY SHOWS DUST AND DRY AIR IN THE
ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 29W-31W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
20N49W TO 10N51W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. METEOSAT SAL TRACKING
IMAGERY DEPICTS SOME SAHARAN DRY AIR MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE WAVE. A STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR PREVAILS IN
THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE INHIBITING CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 24N71W TO 12N72W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTICED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
WAVE FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 70W-76W AS UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED TO SUPPORT THIS CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
EXTENDING CENTRAL AMERICA WITH AXIS FROM 21N91W TO 07N87W. THIS
WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH ABUNDANT UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF
THE BASE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N16W TO
A 1013 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 11N22W TO 06N28W. IT RESUMES NEAR
13N30W TO 12N41W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 12N41W TO 10N49W TO 09N53W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION
OCCURRING WITHIN THE TROPICAL WAVES...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 05N-14N BETWEEN 23W-29W...AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION PREVAILS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 31W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE BASE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN US EXTENDS TO
THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED FROM 25N97W TO 29N83W AND EXTENDING TO
THE WEST ATLANTIC. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM S OF THE FRONT. A TROPICAL WAVE IS
MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA
ENHANCING SIMILAR CONVECTION IN THAT REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL-HIGH
CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND EXTENDING THROUGH THE
WESTERN GULF KEEPING A DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA. OVER THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE ENHANCING CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE BASIN IS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING
ACROSS WESTERN HISPANIOLA. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO
THE SECTION ABOVE. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THIS TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO ENHANCE SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN BASIN W OF 68W. THE
FEEDING BAND OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED IN THE ATLANTIC IS
ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN E OF 65W BETWEEN 14N-16N. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...
THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS
HISPANIOLA THROUGH THE DAY. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY FRIDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY...A TROPICAL WAVE LIES ALONG 72W ENHANCING CONVECTION
ACROSS HAITI AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN US AND ITS
ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 29N81W TO 34N69W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM S OF
THIS BOUNDARY. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 26N57W IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 23N-
28N BETWEEN 56W-61W. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC IS SUPPORTING A SHEAR LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N28W TO
29N39W AND A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 29N39W TO 26N45W. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 28N-31W BETWEEN 28W-32W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


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