[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241033
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED SEP 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
23N29W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 17N30W TO 11N29W...MOVING W AT 10
KT. METEOSAT SAL IMAGERY SHOWS DUST AND DRY AIR IN THE
ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 26W-31W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
21N51W TO 10N51W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. METEOSAT SAL TRACKING
IMAGERY DEPICTS SOME SAHARAN DRY AIR MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE WAVE. A STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR PREVAILS IN
THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE INHIBITING CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXITING HISPANIOLA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
22N73W TO 12N73W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTICED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
WAVE FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 70W-76W AS UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED TO SUPPORT THIS CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
EXTENDING CENTRAL AMERICA WITH AXIS FROM 21N92W TO 07N89W. THIS
WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH ABUNDANT UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF
THE BASE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 11N25W. IT RESUMES NEAR 12N31W TO
10N38W TO ANOTHER LOW NEAR 13N43W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION
OCCURRING WITHIN THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 04N-11N BETWEEN 25W-30W...AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG 12N BETWEEN 31W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE BASE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN US EXTENDS TO
THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED FROM 26N97W TO 29N83W AND EXTENDING TO
THE WEST ATLANTIC. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM S OF THE FRONT. A TROPICAL WAVE IS
MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA
ENHANCING SIMILAR CONVECTION IN THAT REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL-HIGH
CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND EXTENDING THROUGH THE
WESTERN GULF KEEPING A DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA. OVER THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE ENHANCING CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE BASIN IS THE TROPICAL WAVE EXITING
HISPANIOLA. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION
ABOVE. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO ENHANCE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ACROSS THE WESTERN BASIN W OF 71W. THE FEEDING BAND OF AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW CENTERED IN THE ATLANTIC IS ENHANCING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 65W
BETWEEN 14N-16N. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS... THE TROPICAL WAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS HISPANIOLA THROUGH
THE DAY. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
BY FRIDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY...A TROPICAL WAVE LIES ALONG 73W ENHANCING CONVECTION
ACROSS HAITI AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN US AND ITS
ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 29N81W TO 35N67W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 100-150 NM S
OF THIS BOUNDARY. AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N72W IS
PAIRING WITH THIS TROUGH TO KEEP ABUNDANT MOISTURE PREVAILING
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND HENCE ENHANCING CONVECTION FROM
22N-26N BETWEEN 78W-81W. ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION SUPPORTED BY
THIS UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS LOCATED FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 70W-75W.
FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N57W IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN
55W-63W. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC IS
SUPPORTING A SHEAR LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N29W TO 28N41W AND A
SURFACE TROUGH FROM 28N41W TO 26N46W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING FROM 27N-31W BETWEEN 28W-34W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


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