[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 201201
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS ALONG 22W/23W FROM 18N
SOUTHWARD. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR
13N. THE WAVE HAS BEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD DURING THE LAST 12
HOURS OR SO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 18W AND 22W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE...RELATED TO THE TROPICAL
WAVE...THE 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...AND THE MONSOON
TROUGH...FROM 6N TO 17N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N49W 15N52W 10N53W.
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 8N TO 12N
BETWEEN 50W AND 55W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 7N TO 23N BETWEEN 43W AND 55W.

A TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS-TO-HAITI-TO EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W/73W FROM 23N SOUTHWARD. THE
WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA AND ITS BORDER WITH COLOMBIA...INCLUDING IN LAKE
MARACAIBO...FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 71W AND 74W. THE NUMEROUS
STRONG THAT WAS IN HAITI AND IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT SIX
HOURS AGO HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM
13N TO 20N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF
SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W...TO THE 1008 MB LOW CENTER...TO 1030W AND
10N38W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N38W TO 11N50. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N
TO 13N BETWEEN 41W AND 44W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE...RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE...THE
1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS ALONG THE 22W/23W TROPICAL
WAVE...AND THE MONSOON TROUGH...FROM 6N TO 17N BETWEEN AFRICA
AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO...

THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT REACHES
32N58W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 32N58W TO 30N70W...TO
NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 30N83W...AND CONTINUING INTO SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
SOUTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...THROUGH THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR
27N73W...ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...TO 26N95W IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM
27N TO 32N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SCATTERED
STRONG FROM 27N TO 29N BETWEEN 67W AND 69W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
FROM 22N TO 28N. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 70W WESTWARD.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS ARE REPORTING LOW CLOUD CEILINGS...
KMZG...KBQX...KGVX...KVAF...KCRH...KVQT....KATP...KMDJ...KSPR...
KIKT...KMIS...AND KDLP.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED...IN TEXAS IN WESLACO AND
EDINBURG...AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN CORPUS CHRISTI...FROM
VICTORIA TO PORT LAVACA WITH DRIZZLE AND TO PALACIOS...IN
FLORIDA...FROM PANAMA CITY TO MARIANNA TO TALLAHASSEE AND
PERRY...RAIN HAS STOPPED FOR THE MOMENT IN BROOKSVILLE. RAIN IS
BEING REPORTED IN THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA AND SURROUNDING
CITIES/COMMUNITIES...TO SARASOTA AND IN FORT MYERS...AND IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS IN MARATHON.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG
22N70W...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...TO 17N71W...TO LAKE MARACAIBO IN
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15
KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN HAITI...IN
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI COASTAL WATERS FROM 17N TO
19N BETWEEN 71W AND 73W...AND IN LAKE MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN
COLOMBIA...ACROSS JAMAICA...TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 18N62W...TO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH...COVERING
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
AND LOCALLY STRONG FROM 9N TO 20N BETWEEN 54W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN AND 70W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N72W IN COLOMBIA TO 8N82W IN
PANAMA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 10N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 77W AND 80W. NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 79W
AND 84W ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF PANAMA IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 12N SOUTHWARD FROM 76W
WESTWARD.

...HISPANIOLA...

A TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS-TO-HAITI-TO EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W/73W FROM 23N SOUTHWARD. THE
WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA AND ITS BORDER WITH COLOMBIA...INCLUDING IN LAKE
MARACAIBO...FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 71W AND 74W. THE NUMEROUS
STRONG THAT WAS IN HAITI AND IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT SIX
HOURS AGO HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM
13N TO 20N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W.

CLOUD CONDITIONS FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS
CLOUDS...OTHER FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AND SCATTERED
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED AROUND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE NORTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH
THE CURRENT RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE ON TOP OF SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA AND THE IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 30
HOURS. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE
REST OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB
SHOWS THAT AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CUBA RIDGE WILL PUSH
NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THIS
SCENARIO WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN INVERTED TROUGH...AND THEN
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...BY THE END OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 23N50W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N TO 32N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.
FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 44W AND 62W.

A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 24N65W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
21N TO 25N BETWEEN 63W AND 68W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 21N TO 30N
BETWEEN 57W AND 70W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE MADEIRA
ARCHIPELAGO...TO THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS...TO 14N30W. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N18W TO
31N19W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN 17W AND 20W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 31N34W TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
30N50W...TO 24N68W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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