[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 200605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W FROM 18N
SOUTHWARD. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR
13N. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 5 TO 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 14N TO 16N
BETWEEN 18W AND 22W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG ELSEWHERE...RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE...THE 1008 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER...AND THE MONSOON TROUGH...FROM 6N TO 13N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 30W AND 42W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N48W 15N51W 10N52W.
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 50W AND
54W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
ELSEWHERE FROM 8N TO 22N BETWEEN 44W AND 54W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG
22N70W...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...TO 17N71W...TO LAKE MARACAIBO IN
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15
KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN HAITI...IN
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI COASTAL WATERS FROM 17N TO
19N BETWEEN 71W AND 73W...AND IN LAKE MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF
SENEGAL AND GAMBIA NEAR 13N17W...TO THE 1008 MB LOW CENTER...TO
9N30W AND 10N37W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N37W TO 10N45W AND
12N50W...11N54W...INTO NORTHERN GUYANA NEAR 8N60W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION... WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 30W AND 42W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N/33N ALONG 60W...TO 31N64W. A
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N64W TO 30N70W...TO NORTHERN
FLORIDA NEAR 30N83W...TO A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
IN SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND CONTINUING INTO SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
SOUTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...THROUGH THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO...AND TO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 28N75W...TO SOUTH
FLORIDA...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
28N90W...AND TO 27N95W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 71W AND 80W...IN
SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
FROM 24N TO 25N BETWEEN 84W AND 85W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N57W
24N70W...TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM
20N TO 29N.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS ARE REPORTING LOW CLOUD CEILINGS...
KGVX...KEMK...KCRH...KVQT...KGHB...KGRY...KATP...KMDJ...KSPR...
KDLP...AND KXPY.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED...IN TEXAS IN WESLACO AND
MCALLEN...IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL AREA...AND IN PORT
LAVACA...IN FLORIDA...LIGHT RAIN IS BEING REPORTED IN
BROOKSVILLE...IN THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA AND SURROUNDING
CITIES/COMMUNITIES...AND IN PUNTA GORDA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG
22N70W...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...TO 17N71W...TO LAKE MARACAIBO IN
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15
KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN HAITI...IN
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI COASTAL WATERS FROM 17N TO
19N BETWEEN 71W AND 73W...AND IN LAKE MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN
COLOMBIA...ACROSS JAMAICA...TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 18N62W...TO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH...COVERING
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 8N TO 15N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W. ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 10N TO 21N BETWEEN
60W AND 65W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 6N74W IN COLOMBIA...ACROSS EASTERN
PANAMA...BEYOND NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE
COLOMBIA FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W...FROM
COLOMBIA/PANAMA TO 11N BETWEEN THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THAT IS
ALONG 76W AND 79W...AND FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 85W AND 87W IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS OF COSTA RICA. ISOLATED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA FROM 15N SOUTHWARD FROM 79W WESTWARD.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG
22N70W...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...TO 17N71W...TO LAKE MARACAIBO IN
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15
KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN HAITI...IN
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI COASTAL WATERS FROM 17N TO
19N BETWEEN 71W AND 73W...AND IN LAKE MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS
CLOUDS...OTHER SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AND SCATTERED TO
BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED AROUND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER ARE BEING REPORTED IN PUERTO
PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE NORTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH
THE CURRENT RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE ON TOP OF SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA AND THE IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 30
HOURS. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE
REST OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB
SHOWS THAT AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CUBA RIDGE WILL PUSH
NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THIS
SCENARIO WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN INVERTED TROUGH...AND THEN
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...BY THE END OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 23N50W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N TO 32N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.
FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 45W AND 62W.

A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 24N65W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
21N TO 25N BETWEEN 63W AND 68W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 21N TO 26N BETWEEN
62W AND 68W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE MADEIRA
ARCHIPELAGO...TO THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS...TO 14N30W. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE MADEIRA
ARCHIPELAGO TO 31N17W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS RELATED TO EITHER TROUGH.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 24N20W 27N30W 29N42W...TO A 1022 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N50W...TO 28N58W AND 21N66W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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