[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 141053
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD IS CENTERED NEAR 24.0N 49.7W AT 14/0900
UTC OR ABOUT 825 NM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING
NW AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND
WITHIN 90 NM S SEMICIRCLE WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
ELSEWHERE FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 45W-53W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N36W TO 21N34W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. A 1014 MB LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 16N AND
COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY AND BROAD
700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 30W-40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 34W-37W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N84W TO 27N82W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS WITHIN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF BROAD 700
MB TROUGHING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA AND EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. LOW TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWARD
IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 81W-87W. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL LIKELY MERGE WITH A 1014 MB
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
11N20W TO 12N30W TO 08N41W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N41W TO 07N47W TO 08N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-14N BETWEEN 16W-24W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-11N BETWEEN 41W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF
WATERS NEAR 29N95W THAT IS PROVIDING THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 23N
WITH NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NE FLOW
HOWEVER...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND INTO THE GULF WATERS AS A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 30N88W TO
27N95W TO 25N100W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. TO THE SE OF THE FRONT
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF...A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED FROM 31N86W TO A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 26N87W TO THE
NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N88W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
EASTERN GULF THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW AND
TROUGHING...ALONG WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED ALONG 84W IN THE
NW CARIBBEAN SEA. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL MERGE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF WITH WEAK CYCLOGENESIS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF WITHIN A BROAD ENVELOPE OF CYCLONIC WINDS RANGING FROM 5 TO
15 KT ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL AND SW GULF AS MAXIMUM LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS NOTED ALONG THE EASTERN MEXICO
COAST. THE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
LARGELY W OF A LINE FROM THE STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 26N97W TO
20N91W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
GENERALLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS INFLUENCING THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING THAT IS PROVIDING AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT AND A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING W OF 79W IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROPICAL WAVE.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF
12N BETWEEN NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND COSTA RICA DUE TO THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ALONG 09N/10N. FARTHER EAST...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 23N65W
THAT EXTENDS TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH A BROAD
BASE LOCATED NEAR 13N71W. RELATIVELY DRY AIR IS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY E OF 75W WITH ONLY A FEW PASSING SHALLOW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OCCURRING THIS MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...
AND LESSER ANTILLES.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY CONDITIONS REMAIN TRANQUIL AS NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. A FEW PASSING ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE MONA
PASSAGE AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS E OF 73W. AS THE
ENVIRONMENT REACHES PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE
ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED FROM WESTERN
CUBA SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 27N BETWEEN 74W-79W THIS
MORNING. ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TO THE EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 23N65W THAT IS GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 61W-67W IN AN AREA OF
MAXIMUM MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. ASIDE FROM THIS AREA
OF CONCENTRATED CONVECTION...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC
IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB
HIGH CENTERED SW OF BERMUDA NEAR 30N69W. THE EASTERN ATLC IS
ALSO UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1021
MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N34W. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SURFACE
HIGHS...TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD CONTINUES TO SPIN IN A FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT. EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
NW DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN

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