[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140551
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD IS CENTERED NEAR 23.4N 48.5W AT 14/0300
UTC OR ABOUT 880 NM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING
NW AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 43W-53W.
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N34W TO 19N33W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS AND COINCIDES
WITH A MAXIMUM IN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY AND BROAD 700 MB
TROUGHING BETWEEN 30W-40W. ISOLATED MODERATE AND STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 33W-35W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N82W TO 23N82W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS WITHIN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF BROAD 700
MB TROUGHING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA AND EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. LOW TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWARD
IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 19N-27N BETWEEN 77W-86W. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL LIKELY MERGE WITH A 1012 MB
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 17N16W TO
14N26W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
08N38W TO 07N41W TO 09N47W TO 09N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-14N BETWEEN 14W-19W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-11N BETWEEN 40W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF
WATERS NEAR 29N93W THAT IS PROVIDING THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 25N
WITH NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NE FLOW
HOWEVER...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
NEAR 31N87W SW TO 28N92W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE W-
SW INTERSECTING THE TEXAS GULF COAST NEAR 26N97W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT E OF 93W. TO THE SE OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF...A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 31N86W TO A
1013 MB LOW NEAR 26N87W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 22N87W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
EASTERN GULF IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW AND TROUGHING...ALONG
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED ALONG 82W IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA.
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THESE TWO FEATURES WILL MERGE
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WITH WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WITHIN A BROAD
ENVELOPE OF CYCLONIC WINDS RANGING FROM 5 TO 15 KT ON MONDAY.
OTHERWISE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE
WEST-CENTRAL AND SW GULF THIS EVENING AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
REMAINS DRAPED ALONG INLAND EASTERN MEXICO FROM 20N98W TO
25N99W. THE CONVECTION IS LARGELY W OF A LINE FROM THE
STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 27N96W TO THE NW TIP OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 21N90W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N79W THAT PROVIDES AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT THIS EVENING W OF 73W. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT
AND A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 17N BETWEEN 77W-
86W NEAR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AND FROM 11N-
15N BETWEEN 79W-83W NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM SOUTHERN BELIZE TO COASTAL WESTERN COSTA
RICA. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW
NORTH ATLC NEAR 23N66W THAT EXTENDS TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN WITH A BROAD BASE LOCATED NEAR 13N71W. RELATIVELY DRY
AIR IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY E OF 73W WITH ONLY A FEW
PASSING SHALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING THIS EVENING.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY CONDITIONS REMAIN TRANQUIL AS NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO
SUNDAY. A FEW PASSING ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS E OF 71W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED FROM WESTERN
CUBA SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 27N W OF 77W THIS EVENING.
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RE-
ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TO THE EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 23N66W
THAT IS GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 60W-66W IN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. ASIDE FROM THIS AREA OF CONCENTRATED
CONVECTION...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED
W OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N71W. THE EASTERN ATLC IS ALSO UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 29N32W. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SURFACE HIGHS...TROPICAL STORM
EDOUARD CONTINUES TO SPIN IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT. EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NW DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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