[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI SEP 05 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
JUST WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
19N24W TO THE LOW NEAR 14N25W TO 9N25W...MOVING WEST AT 15 KT.
METEOSAT SAHARAN AIR LAYER TRACKING IMAGERY AND SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DEPICT DRY AIR HAS ENTRAINED THE
SYSTEM...WHICH HAS REDUCED THE CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ON THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW FROM 10N-17N
BETWEEN 25W-29W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ABOUT 570 NM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 17N50W TO 9N51W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT.
MODERATE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...WHICH
ALONG WITH MIDDLE-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 46W-55W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 21N70W TO 12N71W...MOVING W AT 20 KT. MODERATE TO HIGH DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS ON THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHERE AN
UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM 15N-23N BETWEEN 65W-75W...INCLUDING
HISPANIOLA...THE MONA PASSAGE AND PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 20N81W TO 9N82W...MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND A RIDGE ON THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
ARE GENERATING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS W OF 76W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 22N96W TO THE E
PAC WATERS NEAR 12N97W...WITH A WESTWARD TRANSLATION SPEED OF 20-
25 KT. THE WAVE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS ON THE SW GULF AS
WELL AS INLAND SOUTHERN MEXICO.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 17N16W TO
A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 14N25W TO 6N31W 6N39W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR
6N40W AND CONTINUES TO 6N50W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
NOTED BESIDES THE ONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

OVER THE SW BASIN...A TROPICAL WAVE ENHANCES SCATTERED SHOWERS. SEE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION. AN INVERTED TROUGH IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS
ALONG WITH MODERATE TO HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ACROSS GREAT PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE SW N
ATLC AND THE CARIBBEAN WHICH IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS DOMINATING
ACROSS THE BASIN IS 5-10 KT. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INLAND
SE MEXICO LATER TONIGHT. A NEW TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE SUNDAY MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE ON THE REGION...ONE OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND ANOTHER MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN. THE
LATTER CONTINUES TO ENHANCE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
TSTMS ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT WATERS. A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE W-SW CARIBBEAN SUPPORT SIMILAR CONVECTION
OVER THE WESTERN BASIN...INCLUDING WESTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA. SEE
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. TRADES OF 15
KT ABOUNDS ACROSS THE BASIN...EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
AND VENEZUELA WHERE 20 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN BEYOND
SUNDAY AS THE WAVE ON THE WESTERN BASIN MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND THE SECOND WAVE DRIFTS TO THE WESTERN BASIN. A NEW
TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES SUNDAY
MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHICH ALONG
A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT
WATERS. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE SAT MORNING...SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW ON THE SW N ATLC SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 72W-75W. FARTHER EAST...A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORT A 1015 MB LOW NEAR 29N40W FROM
WHICH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW TO 23N42W. THERE IS NO
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DUE TO LACK
OF MOISTURE IN ITS IMMEDIATE ENVIRONMENT. OVER THE EASTERN
BASIN...A 1018 MB HIGH IS NEAR 25N28W WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT
NW BY SAT EVENING. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR AREAS OF
CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF THE REMAINDER BASIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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