[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051749
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN E ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N23W TO 9N24W MOVING
W AT 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW
NEAR 13N24W. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
VERY MOIST AREA SURROUNDING THIS WAVE FROM 5N-21N BETWEEN 18W
AND 27W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION COINCIDES WITH THE
HIGHEST MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE WAVE FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 23W
AND 27W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 20N49W TO 9N50W MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE MOIST AREA FROM 7N-17N BETWEEN
44W-60W WITH DRIER AIR EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
WAVE N OF 17N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 47W AND
55W...WHERE THE ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT IS
LOCATED.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND PORTIONS OF
THE ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 23N70W TO 11N70W MOVING W
AT 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE IS EVIDENT IN ARCHING ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 17N
WITHIN 100 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 21N79W TO 10N79W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE
COMBINATION OF A MOIST AIRMASS...THE TROPICAL WAVE...AND UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...IS ENHANCING CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF
THE WAVE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
FROM 11N-20N BETWEEN 80W-86W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...MEXICO...AND THE E
PACIFIC EXTENDING FROM 22N92W TO 12N93W MOVING W AT 15KT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITHIN 200 NM OF
THE WAVE AXIS. MOST OF THE DEEPER CONVECTION IS LOCATED IN THE E
PACIFIC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 17N16W TO
10N27W TO 6N36W. OTHER THAN CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVES MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION...
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 21W AND 36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 1550 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF ACROSS N FLORIDA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING IN
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH. ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF...MAINLY
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT ARE OCCURRING AROUND
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 33N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
SURFACE WINDS UP TO 15 KT ARE OCCURRING IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN
THE VICINITY OF A TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES
SECTION. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER
THE NE GULF TO MOVE NORTHWARD WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.
ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL
WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL COMBINE WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF BY SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS OF 10-20 KT DOMINATE THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN. MOST OF THE CONVECTION IN THE CARIBBEAN IS
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES DISCUSSED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES
SECTION. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN A SMALL UPPER LOW ACROSS
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN EASTWARD TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...ENHANCED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WESTWARD INTO
THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO PASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA N OF 16N
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS WILL AFFECT THE LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE.

...HISPANIOLA...

A TROPICAL WAVE CROSSING THE AREA IS HELPING TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD WEST WITH THE ADVANCING
WAVE TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE AS A MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS
ACROSS THE REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 33N72W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS N OF 15N BETWEEN 45W AND 65W. A REGION OF UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE UNDERNEATH THIS TROUGH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 47W AND 56W. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATE WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A
TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION WILL
CONTINUE S OF 24N BETWEEN 66W AND 71W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
THIS CONVECTION WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN GULF ACROSS N
FLORIDA AND JUST OFFSHORE OF GA/SC. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 33N BETWEEN 76W AND 81W. THIS
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


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