[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED JUST E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR
18N60W. THE LOW IS MOVING NW AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 56W-61W.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 18N63W TO
9N65W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATE THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE TO HIGH DEEP LAYER
MOIST ENVIRONMENT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
WAVE AXIS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES TO 10N20W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
10N20W TO 7N30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-12N
BETWEEN 22W-38W...AND FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 43W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S GEORGIA NEAR 31N84W. A COLD
FRONT IS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS MOVING E. 10 KT SE TO S WINDS COVER
THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER TEXAS SUPPORTING THE COLD
FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
DRAPE OVER THE N GULF STATES WITH CONVECTION OVER THE N GULF N
OF 28N. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION TO ADVECT OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED JUST E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR
18N60W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALSO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE.
ELSEWHERE...THE 1011 MB REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HANNA
IS NEAR THE N COAST OF HONDURAS AT 17N87W MOVING W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND SHOWERS ARE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS...
HONDURAS...AND BELIZE FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 85W-89W. FURTHER E...
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN TO INCLUDE
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA FROM 13N-21N BETWEEN 77W-85W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA...PANAMA
...AND COSTA RICA DUE TO A MONSOON TROUGH. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N64W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
THE TROPICAL WAVE...AND THE REMNANT LOW OF HANNA TO MOVE W WITH
CONVECTION.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA DUE
TO THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD COLD FRONT. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 33N70W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC FROM 32N46W TO 26N60W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM
26N60W TO 22N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
FRONT AND TROUGH. ANOTHER 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 29N40W. A SMALL 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED JUST W OF THE
CANARY ISLAND NEAR 30N20W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. 0F NOTE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 16N38W
ENHANCING CONVECTION SE OF THE CENTER ALONG THE ITCZ. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE E WITH
SHOWERS AND CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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