[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 16N TO 22N BETWEEN
53W AND 60W. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO
A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES WNW TO NW OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE E
CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N62W TO 9N64W...MOVING W AT
15-20 KT. SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE TO HIGH DEEP LAYER MOIST ENVIRONMENT.
THIS WAVE IS ALSO INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR
16N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 64W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 10N14W AND CONTINUES TO 9N17W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR
9N17W AND CONTINUES ALONG 8N30W TO 9N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OCCURRING ALONG MUCH OF THE ITCZ
FROM 4N TO 12N BETWEEN 20W AND 57W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS IS DIGGING SE TOWARD THE NW
GULF. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ACROSS TX. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...CLOUD COVER IS INCREASING ACROSS THE NW GULF WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 20 KT W OF 96W. A 1024 SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED IN THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 22N72W EXTENDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
GULF BASIN. THIS HIGH IS PROVIDING ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW
MAINLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KT ACROSS THE GULF E OF 96W. DRY AIR IN
THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS IS MAINTAINING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE
BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL NEAR THE
NORTHERN GULF WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF HANNA
WILL MOVE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH POSSIBLE CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HANNA IS NEAR THE N COAST
OF HONDURAS NEAR 15N86W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH OF
THE LOW TO 20N86W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND SHOWERS
EXTEND ACROSS HONDURAS AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 15N TO 21N
BETWEEN 79W AND 88W. THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS CONVECTION FREE
WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING DRY AIR IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS SPREADING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND E CARIBBEAN. SEE
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL MOVE WEST TO NORTHWEST WHICH COULD
BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY
THURSDAY.

HISPANIOLA...

A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OF A DECAYED STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NE
INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS TROUGH IS
PROVIDING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE THAT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN WITH AN OVERALL DECREASE IN COVERAGE IN SHOWERS AN
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA NNE TO BERMUDA.
THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 28N60W TO 20N69W
...AND A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N56W TO 27N71W. NO CONVECTION
IS OCCURRING ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT DUE TO DRY AIR. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM OF THE
TROUGH. A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 18N56W THAT IS
BEING LEFT BEHIND BY A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. THIS
SYSTEM IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION.  A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 28N39W AND
DOMINATES THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC WITH FAIR WEATHER AND
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW W OF 50W N OF 20N. OTHERWISE...SEE THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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